Not the PHB

Ha Ha...

2005-10-27T10:54:00.000-05:00

Funny cartoon... if you share my (sick...?) sense of humour.

Map

2005-10-21T08:45:00.000-05:00

I visit Recombinomics.com nearly every day. I've linked to the dynamic map from Recombinomics before. Here it is again.

H5N1 Wild Bird Flu Map

I don't think I've blogged on it, but I know I've talked about it. What is starting to really concern me is when H5N1 spreads through the middle east into Africa.

There are a lot of African states that do not have the resources or controls to stop an outbreak of H5N1. This increases the likelihood of human exposure. This increases the likelihood of the virus shifting / mutating to allow efficient human-to-human transmission. We can't control the spread of a flu in 1st world states, what do you think will happen in some 3rd world countries?

Or... if you want the real nightmare scenario... Two of the scariest diseases known to man are alive and well in (mainly central) Africa - Ebola and Marburg. Imagine the nightmare that would happen if H5N1 combined with one of those...

Exporting Bird Flu

2005-10-21T08:38:00.000-05:00

Did you know that Canada is currently an exporter of bird flu?

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Australia bans imports of Canadian birds; pigeons said to have flu antibodies

Australian authorities said Friday they are banning import of birds from Canada after three pigeons tested positive for bird flu antibodies.

The birds were in a consignment of 102 pigeons that arrived in Australia on Sept. 3. They tested positive while being held in quarantine in the southern city Melbourne, Agriculture Minister Peter McGauran told Australian Broadcasting Corp. radio.

He said the birds were not carrying bird flu, only the antibodies, indicating they had at some time been exposed.

"That could at some stage have developed into something else in the future," he said.
He did not say which strain of bird flu antibodies they were carrying but noted they were found with the antibodies, despite being certified disease-free by Canadian authorities.

None of the imported birds was allowed out of quarantine and the three found with bird flu antibodies were destroyed.

"Thankfully, Australia's quarantine system worked as it's meant to, that we didn't take the certification on face value even though it is coming from an advanced country," McGauran said.

"Australia will be imposing an immediate ban in the importation of birds from Canada until there is further and better reasons given for the errors made by the Canadian quarantine authorities," he added.
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Okay... they weren't actually carrying the bird flu, but the fact that they were carrying the anit-bodies should cause concern. This means that they were exposed to bird flu somehow.

Does this mean that H5N1 is already in Canada?

Perhaps it's 'dormant' right now - - if that's possible - - but somewhere in the country.

Striking a little closer to home now...

Spread of avian flu baffles scientists

2005-10-19T09:31:00.000-05:00

How's that for a headline you don't want to read? It's from today's Globe.

In a nut-shell, scientists are baffled by how avian flu is spreading. They are watching H5N1 pass between species of migratory birds. But they don't appear to know which birds to be watching.

Here's how the article ends...

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So they are now considering the likelihood that some other wild bird they haven't identified is carrying the virus from place to place. The wild bird die-offs, they think, occur when the carrier birds come in contact with other wild birds that are susceptible to the virus.

“One thing we know about highly pathogenic viruses” — this H5N1 is a high path virus — “is they're not highly pathogenic to all species,” says Dr. David Halvorson, a veterinarian who specializes in avian health at the University of Minnesota.

“So . . . the birds that are dying may not be responsible for transmitting it from one place to another. They might be victims of some other cousin bird that's transmitting it that's less affected by it.”

And it may not be just one species of carrier birds.

“It could be several different bird species that can be infected and possibly fly far distances and shed virus and transmit the virus,” says Dr. David Swayne, director of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory in Athens, Ga.

“It's just a matter that no one has found that species yet. The only thing they've found has been the dead birds when an outbreak has been found in wild birds.”

Complicating the matter is the fact that even among birds that carry these viruses, only a portion of a species will be infected at any one time. A negative test wouldn't rule out the species, only that individual bird at that specific time.

Dr. Swayne suggests if the culprit or culprits are discovered, it could be a chance finding.

“It may be kind of difficult,” he admits.
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Add to this that the news wires are starting to talk about 2600 dead birds in China and that a possible familial cluster of H5N1 has been discovered in Thiland...

Numerous interesting (and scary) developments in the progress of H5N1.

Now the EU

2005-10-17T18:25:00.000-05:00

I'm away on business right now, so entries will probably be more sporadic than usual this week.

But here's something worth adding to the H5N1 picture... it's now in the EU.

Greece becomes first EU country to confirm bird flu

H5N1 resistant to Tamiflu

2005-10-14T12:54:00.000-05:00

This is a bit of a mixed news story.

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Scientists say they have found Tamiflu-resistant strain of bird

Researchers have identified a mutated form of H5N1 bird flu that is resistant to Tamiflu, the drug being stockpiled around the world to counter a feared influenza pandemic, a study released says.

The strain was found in a case in Vietnam involving a 14-year-old girl who may have caught the flu from her brother rather than directly from infected birds, it said.

Sequencing of the virus showed that it had a mutation that made it resistant to oseltamivir, the lab name for Tamiflu.

However, tests on lab animals showed that the resistant virus is sensitive to another drug called zanamivir, commercialised as Relenza, the research said.

The study was due to be published next Thursday in Nature, the British science weekly, but the journal decided to bring forward its release because of its importance.

The findings "raise the possibility that it might be useful to stockpile zanamivir as well as oseltamivir in the event of an H5N1 influenza pandemic," said the authors, led by Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the University of Tokyo and the University of Wisconsin at Madison.
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So... at least one strain of H5N1 is now resistant to Tamiflu. Bad news as Tamiflu seems to be the drug du jour for a lot of contries hoping to stockpile for the pending pandemic.

The good news is that the Tamiflu resistant strain is still susceptible to Relenza.

However, this does pose a financial and logistical barrier for countries, organizations, and individuals. Now, instead of having to stockpile one drug, they have to stockpile two. My prediction is that it's only a matter of time before researchers discover a different strain that's resistant to Relenza... or both drugs.

Q & A on Avian Flu

2005-10-13T14:46:00.000-05:00

An interesting Q&A from Fox news.

Bird Flu FAQs: Ten Questions, Ten Answers

Spreading further

2005-10-13T14:27:00.000-05:00

Here are the latest entries at Recombinomics.

Just by reading the entry titles, you can see geographic and numerical increases.

H5N1 Wild Bird Flu Confirmed in Turkey

16th H5N1 Fatality Transferred 20 Minutes Before Death

Over 3600 Dead Wild Ducks In West Azerbajan Iran

17th H5N1 Fatality Dies 4.5 Hours After Re-Admission

H5 in Domestic Poultry Confirmed in Romania

Bird Flu Symptoms in Sulianti Suraso Health Care Worker

These are all bad, but it's this last one that worries me the most.

Health care workers getting sick... They aren't getting sick by coming in contact with birds; they are getting sick by coming in contact with people that are sick.

From my point of view, the single factor keeping the looming pandemic from hitting is the lack of human-to-human transmission. If we start getting indicators of more health care workers getting sick - and it's confirmed as H5N1 - then I would suggest we've crossed the final threshold.

6 months ago, who would have pegged Jakarta as the H5N1 hotspot? Just goes to show that you never know...

Good luck with that

2005-10-10T11:57:00.000-05:00

Not going to quote the whole story, just wish US Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt 'good luck'...

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U.S. health secretary warns of a future bird flu pandemic

Leading a multinational team of medical experts to mobilize Southeast Asian countries against bird flu, Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt said Monday the likelihood of a flu pandemic in the future is "very high."

Leavitt said his delegation reviewed Thailand's plan of action against bird flu and that a draft of a comprehensive U.S. plan would be released in a few days.

He described "containment" as the first line of defence against bird flu, and encouraged strengthening public health systems to find out as early as possible of any cases of human-to-human transmission.

Another strategy was the production and use of antiviral drugs and vaccines. Leavitt said that scientists have developed a vaccine based on bird flu samples from Vietnam, but the effective dosages are six to 12 times that used for combating the so-called seasonal influenza that has become common around the world.
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So... Mr. Leavitt suggests 'containing' something that is being spread by migratory birds capable of flying 100 miles a day. With what?

Then he's going to use antiviral drugs and vaccines. Interesting. A lot of reports indicate that the US only has enough vaccine for 2-3% of it's population. If you need 6 to 12 times the normal dose...

Doesn't appear to me that he's got a rock solid strategy building here, does it?

Another familial H5N1 cluster

2005-10-10T11:55:00.000-05:00

H5N1 Confirmed Familial Cluster in Lampung Indonesia

And now Hungary... ?

2005-10-10T11:54:00.000-05:00

Suspect H5N1 Bird Flu Case in Hungary?

Progress and decline

2005-10-10T11:50:00.000-05:00

How can a country make this much progress and this much decline at the same time?

From Social Studies in today's Globe...

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Where the boys are

Visitors to U.S. college campuses can't help but ask: Where are the boys? reports USA Today. Currently, 135 women receive bachelor's degrees for every 100 men and that imbalance will widen in coming years, according to a report by the federal Department of Education. Nearly as many American men are behind bars or on probation and parole (five million) as are in college (7.3 million).
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H5N1 in Turkey and Romania

2005-10-08T14:16:00.000-05:00

From Reuters...

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Romania reports new bird flu cases in Danube delta

Romania reported new cases of avian flu in the Danube delta on the Black Sea on Saturday and began culling hundreds of birds to prevent the disease from spreading, authorities said.
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Bird flu case discovered in Turkey

Bird flu has been discovered in Turkey for the first time since the recent outbreak of the disease in Asia, Turkish Farm Minister Mehdi Eker was quoted as saying on Saturday.
CNN Turk television said that 2,000 turkeys had died of the disease on a farm in Balikesir province near the Aegean Sea in western Turkey. All animals on the farm had been slaughtered to prevent the disease spreading, it added.
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Finding H5N1 in Turkey and Romania at this time is consistent with the geographic spread of H5N1 via migratory birds.

Jakarta remains the global hotspot right now, with 89+ confirmed H5N1 cases in humans.

Another Pet Theory of Mine

2005-10-04T10:47:00.000-05:00

I have another pet theory that has to do with the rising price of oil causing a recession.

From my April 15th post... [noting like quoting yourself as a source, huh?]

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Perhaps I should discuss my theories regarding the pending collapse of North America's economies. You know... sky rocketing oil prices driving the cost of transportation so high that our national infrastructure grinds to a screeching halt; the eventual rise in interest rates that will result in foreclosures and bankruptcies everywhere (thanks to the big banks love affair with allowing families to leverage themselves to the last dime); all wrapped up in a blanket of super-debt that our neighbours to the south seem to think is somehow propping up the rest of the world.
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A little melodramatic... but I'm sure you get the point.

Here are some selected para's from an article in today's Globe:

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Energy prices bear down on retailers

Although North American retailers have managed to dodge the full wrath of soaring energy prices so far, there are mounting signs that the game is nearly up.

The latest batch of economic reports suggest that the seemingly endless rise in crude, gas and heating oil prices is finally having an impact on how much consumers are willing to spend. With consumer spending waning during the most important shopping season of the year, most equity strategists agree that investors should steer clear of retail stocks.

"Consumer spending held up early this year despite the rise in gas prices, but there has to be a breaking point," said Ken Perkins, president of RetailMetrics. "I think we are finally approaching that point."

The price of oil surged to a record high $70.85 (U.S.) a barrel in August as hurricane Katrina hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. Crude has risen 35 per cent in the past year. Gasoline and heating oil futures are more than 50 per cent higher year over year while natural gas prices have spiked to records of more than $14 per million British thermal units, more than double from a year ago.

Desjardins Securities analyst Keith Howlett estimates that at current prices, the combined pain of higher gasoline prices, home heating costs and electricity charges will take an additional $6-billion (Canadian) out of consumers' pockets. That is "significant" when one considers that Canadians spend about $240-billion at retail outlets

"If we eliminate that factor, people are going to look at their net worth and discover that energy prices matter. And then you will get a change in strategy in terms of how a consumer will spend, and allocate their dollars."
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It's been a while since I've had to walk anyone through a meaningful economic analysis, so I'm not going to try. But how's this for a simple logic chain...

- Oil and gas prices rise.
- Consumers have less money to spend on retail purchases, so they purchase less.
- When retail sales fall, jobs are lost.
- When jobs are lost,there's less money to spend on retail purchases.
- And so on, and so on, and so on.

An over-simplification to say the least, but the logic works. But let's get a little funky and add in the role of central banks and interest rates.

Interest rates remain at an all time low. But all the signs are in place for central banks to start raising rates slowly over time. We're an overly-leveraged economy. What happens when interest rates creep up? When the prime rate goes up, so do mortgage rates. Folks on fixed rates are protected in the short-term, but not forever. Folks on variable rates are impacted, but they don't actually 'feel' the impact until it's time to renegotiate their mortgage - that's crunch time. Ultimately, higher mortgage rates means less ability to afford homes. Couple that with job losses from retail environments and I think you have a formula for increased bankruptcy and foreclosure rates.

Consider also the folks who are so leveraged that they live paycheque to paycheque. It's more than theoretically possible that a marginal increase in oil and gas prices will put them beyond their ability to service their personal debt loads. When this happens... bankruptcies and foreclosures.

Let's add in one more layer to the mix - investors. Investors put their money in places that make them money. If retail sales are falling, retailers are (presumably) making less profit. That means less incentive for investors to keep their money in retail-related investments. Pulling out investments may (under the right circumstances) have a multiplier effect on the difficulties already being faced by the retailers due to decreased sales.

As consumers, we end up spending more $$ on less goods. Average standard of living decreases... etc., etc.

I started talking about this with friends and colleagues about 18 months ago. It was my hypothesis at the time that we would enter a major, global recession within 5 years. The catalyst would be rising oil and gas prices. 3.5 years to go in my prediction... oil and gas prices are significantly increased over where they were... the warning signs are starting to build.

Anyone want to guess the outcome?

Close to home

2005-10-01T13:15:00.000-05:00

Didn't expect to read this today.

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Isolation of 14 Resiratory Patients in Toronto Cause Concern

2 people were admitted to Scarborough General Hospital with an unknown respiratory illness. They have been placed in respiratory isolation, but contrary to reports this morning, the hospital was never placed under quarantine.

Earlier reports that Rouge Valley Centenary in Scarborough was also quarantined have also been struck down. Director of Communications at Rouge Valley Health Anne-Marie Males says 12 residents of the 7 Oaks nursing home have been admitted to their hospital with flu-like symptoms. They have all been put in isolated rooms, but she says this is a all normal precaution taken when an illness hasn't been identified.

The 14 admission cited above has raised some concerns, but so far there have no updates with details about linkage between the two groups. Earlier there were reports of birds dying at a golf course in Toronto, but the cause of the bird deaths have also not been reported.
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I don't believe H5N1 has made it to Toronto yet... It doesn't make sense as there would have been other signs in other parts of the country first. I have to believe that there would have been other evidence - ie: dead birds in other locations.

However, it does raise eyebrows at how innocuous something like this could (... will ...) start when H5N1 does eventually make it here.

Oh yeah... Rick Mercer is finally back from his rather lengthy blogging hiatus :-)

Change of pace...

2005-09-30T14:08:00.000-05:00

Funny post by David Lidsky on the Fast Company blog about Gillette's new 5-blade Fusion - - - which also comes in a 'power' version.

That's right... you read that last line right. 5 blades... It's a funny post and a couple of the comments are worth reading too.

Welcome Develoment

2005-09-27T07:10:00.000-05:00

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Singapore scientists develop quick bird flu detection kit

Scientists in Singapore say they have invented a test kit which can detect bird flu infections in poultry within four hours.

They say the tool could help health officials control the spread of the deadly virus.

Current bird flu tests used by laboratories take two to three days and sometimes up to a week, according to the Reuters news agency.

A professor at the Genome Institute of Singapore, Ren Ee Chee, says the faster bird flu is detected, the earlier isolation procedures can be imposed and the faster poultry can be killed to prevent the virus from spreading.

"We have tested on over 100 avian samples in Vietnam and Malaysia," he said.

"So far, the accuracy rate is 100 percent."

The research team is currently testing the kits on human samples.

Mr Ren says the kits have been designed to identify the gene specific to a strain of bird flu known as H5N1, which has killed 65 people in four Asian nations since late 2003 and has forced the culling of millions of birds.

So far, the H5N1 virus has mainly infected humans who were in close contact with infected birds.

Fears the virus could mutate and spread from human to human have worried authorities.
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Misdiagnosing H5N1

2005-09-26T15:53:00.000-05:00

According to this story, at least one case of H5N1 was misdiagnosed as Denge Fever.

When you look at the total number of cases of denge fever in Indonesia, it wouldn't take too many misdiagnosed cases to cause increased / additional H5N1 issues.

I wonder if there are better screening methods that front-line health care workers can use to ensure misdiagnosis doesn't happen...

Priceless quote

2005-09-22T15:31:00.000-05:00

"H5N1 does not read press releases"

This quote from Recombinomics is absolutely priceless! Here's the context...

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Clearly the efficiency of H5N1 bird flu infections has increased, as the number of admitted cases doubles daily.

The H5N1 pandemic appears to be at phase 5 heading for phase 6. There are no major antiviral interventions.

WHO press releases are still in denial.

H5N1 does not read press releases.
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From the Economist

2005-09-22T15:21:00.000-05:00

It's interesting...

I've been following H5N1 for quite some time now. If fact, there is precious little that I post on anymore.

Some folks think I'm nuts... some think I'm overly pessimistic... others consider me 'chicken little', running around shouting that the sky is falling.

Read this article from The Economist, then tell me what you think.

Preparing for a pandemic

Slow motion train wreck

2005-09-22T10:52:00.000-05:00

Watching this unfold is like watching a train wreck in slow motion...

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115 Symptomatic Zoo Visitors Seek H5N1 Treatment in Jakarta

The above machine translation [which I didnt' include here...] indicates that 115 visitors of the Ragunan Zoo in Jakarta came to the Sulianti Saroso Infectious Disease Hospital for treatment, but because their symptoms were mild, they were not treated.

The hospital has already admitted two zoo workers and four young visitors. The two workers were a tour guide and a vendor, suggesting contact with the H5N1 infected birds was limited. Similarly the age range of the visitors, 1.5 to 10 years of age also suggests contact would be limited.

The zoo was closed on Monday, so those who visited over the weekend would likely have mild symptoms at this time. 115 have come to the hospital and a larger number probably has not.

The next several days should determine how many of the visitors with milder symptoms will develop more sever symptoms, which typically involve high temperatures and breathing difficulties.

Follow-up on these patients, as well as contacts that also visited the zoo, would be useful, as would updates on the 500 zoo employees who were being tested for H5N1.
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Brink of epidemic

2005-09-21T08:58:00.000-05:00

This story is getting loads of global coverage.

Check here for The Globe's story.

Suffice to say, Indonesia is trying to be very careful what language they use - back-tracking in some instances.

This is a definite global hotspot for H5N1 right now.

In my estimation, not long until we hear 'confirmed' human-to-human transmission.

What we're not seeing in Canadian media coverage

2005-09-20T09:04:00.000-05:00

The evidence for human-to-human transmission of H5N1 is growing

Jakarta tackles bird flu outbreak

Indonesians suspected of having bird flu can now be forced to go into hospital, under "extraordinary" measures imposed by the government.

Indonesia govt urges calm over bird flu threat

Indonesia's government appealed for calm on Tuesday and insisted it is able to handle an outbreak of bird flu that has killed four people in the country. The call came after three more people with flu-like symptoms were admitted to hospital in the capital late on Monday, hours after the government to put the country on high alert.

"Extraordinary" Indonesian bird flu outbreak widens

A day after declaring the country faces an "extraordinary incident" because of bird flu, Health Minister Siti Fadilah Supari said the number of cases has continued to rise in the country where four have died from bird flu over the past two months. She said six patients are now being treated at a hospital for respiratory ailments.

Increasing Human to Human Transmision of H5N1 in Jakarta

The above "danger points" refer to three individuals who appear to be transmitting H5N1 to other people. The efficient human-to-human transmission is the major area of concern with regard to a catestrophic flu pandemic. H5N1 appears to be getting more and more efficient at such transmissions.This transmission results in infections via casual contact and is becoming clearer at the Ragunan Zoo where three zoo employees have symptoms as well as in Tangang where the three human-to-human clusters are clustering.

Human to human transmission in Jakarta?

2005-09-18T07:57:00.000-05:00

Recombinomics is suggesting that human to human transmission of bird flu has already occurred.

Here's a the key paragraph...

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Human-to-human transmission was clear in the initial family cluster, which involved 3 members of a family of a government auditor (38M). His eight year old daughter was the index case, showing symptom on June 24. The time gap between her symptoms and her 1 year old sister who developed symptoms on June 29 is a strong signal of human-to-human transmission. Such a 5-10 day gap has been present in almost all familial clusters in Vietnam, Thailand, and Cambodia. WHO however, has refused to acknowledge the virtual certainty of human-to-human transmission in all or most of those cases, which account for more than one third of confirmed cases. Instead WHO maintains that the vast majority of cases come from poultry, thereby contributing to more human-to-human transmission within families, which is clearly happening in Tangerang.
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I've also come across some more projected casualty figures... this time for the UK.

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So far about 60 people are known to have died from the virus, about half of those infected. Experts fear that it will mutate to spread rapidly among people, killing tens - perhaps hundreds - of millions worldwide. Last week Dr Lee Jong-wook, director-general of the World Health Organisation, said the mutation was inevitable and "just an issue of timing". Publicly the Government says that more than 50,000 people are likely to die in Britain, but privately it is preparing for up to 750,000 deaths. Earlier this year Professor Hugh Pennington, one of the country's experts, said that the British death toll could reach two million.
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The article with these projections is actually focusing on the economic impact of a pandemic in the UK. It suggests a simple scenario that will create a depression worse than the 1930's.

Tamiflu... Roche might not like this

2005-09-17T09:33:00.000-05:00

I've posted on Tamiflu before.

Not sure that Roche Laboratories Inc., the makers of Tamiflu, will be over the moon about this.

The other night, ABC News Primetime discussed the possibility of a bird flu pandemic. This has resulted in a lot more 'interest' in bird flu and some unbelievable traffic to some great blogs on bird flu (...not here though, elsewhere...).

Here's an interesting follow-up commentary from Recombinomics.

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US Stockpile Shortage of Tamiflu Described on Primetime

According to Leavitt, that is a long way from the country's ideal stockpile. "Our objective is to have 20 million doses of Tamiflu or enough for 20 million people," he says. He later admitted that only 2 million are currently on hand, but asserted that no other country is in a better position. Officials in Australia, however, have 3.5 million courses of treatment, and in Great Britain, officials say they have ordered enough to cover a quarter of their population."I think at the moment, with 2.5 million doses, you are pretty vulnerable," warns Professor John Oxford of the Royal London Hospital. "The lack of advanced planning up until the moment in the United States, in the sense of not having a huge stockpile I think your citizens deserve, has surprised me and has dismayed me," he admits. Faced with worldwide demand, the Roche company, which produces Tamiflu, has organized a first-come, first-serve waiting list. The United States is nowhere near the top. "The way we are approaching the discussions with governments is that we are operating on a first-come, first-serve basis," says Dr. David Reddy, head of the pandemic task force at Roche. "Do we wish we had ordered it sooner and more of it? I suspect one could say yes," admits Leavitt. "Are we moving rapidly to assure that we have it? The answer is also yes. "When asked why the United States did not place their orders for Tamiflu sooner, Leavitt replied, "I can't answer that. I don't know the answer to that."

The above comments from ABC News Primetime appear to have caused a rush on Google searches, which will likely translate into a run on Tamiflu tomorrow. The public appears to be shocked that the US stockpile is so low. However, the above comments that 20 million doses are enough for 20 million people is a bit misleading. Although one course is for treating one person for five days, animal studies have suggested that five days is not long enough and the FDA approved dose may not be sufficiently high. These numbers collapse for prophylatic use because the Tamiflu only works while it is being taken, so protection for 60 days would require 6 courses per person at the FDA recommended dose, which may also be too low since the mice died even though they were give Tamiflu prior to infection. It seems that the public is due to receive several rude awakenings when they realize that Tamiflu is sold out and its effectiveness has not been convincingly demonstrated.
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Roche will make millions I'm sure... but will Tamiflu actually be effective? It would appear that evidence is mounting to indicate that it won't.

Let's not forget, Tamiflu isn't a cure for bird flu, it is designed to help the body fight getting a flu in the first place. The two are related, but very different.

On a more depressing note, I just read an article regarding infection and mortality projections for a bird flu pandemic. It's based (loosely) on data from the 1918 pandemic. It's just a series of assumptions and straight number crunching. I'm not convinced by the 'science' behind the numbers, but for ball-parking... it's a depressing read. I won't copy it here like I normally do. If you want to read it, go here.

Hopping on the bandwagon

2005-09-17T09:25:00.000-05:00

On Wednesday, George Bush announced a 'plan' for countries and international agencies to partner together to pool resources and expertice for fighting bird flu.

So this really isn't a surprise... From CNN.com

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Canada to host bird flu conference

OTTAWA, Ontario (Reuters) -- Canada will host a major international conference on avian flu in October to discuss how ready the world is to combat a likely pandemic, Health Minister Ujjal Dosanjh said Thursday.

The head of the U.N. World Health Organization said Thursday that avian flu will mutate and become transmissible by humans. The flu has killed more than 60 people in Asia and spread to Russia and Europe.

"We believe that it is important for us across the world to prepare together and know about each other's plans with respect to a possible pandemic," Dosanjh said.

"For these kinds of issues one is never completely prepared ... we don't know when it (a pandemic) will occur, we all believe it will at some point (and) we need to make sure that we've done all we can to prepare for it."

He said the meeting -- which is most likely to be held in the Canadian capital Ottawa -- would group health ministers and senior officials from around 30 nations.

"We will of course be talking about accelerating global coordination efforts, rapid reaction plans and information sharing," Dosanjh said.

U.S. President George W. Bush Wednesday unveiled a plan under which countries and international agencies would pool resources and expertise to fight bird flu.
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Part of me wants to applaud this effort - as I hope it will result in some meaningful advancements in the global preparedness for a pandemic... but a big part of me feels that Dosanjh is just doing this for personal political gains, given that the bird flu has been recieving more coverage than normal in mainstrean US media this week.

If Dosanjh was serious about this threat, with all the information at his disposal, he would have proposed something like this ages ago. Also, he would fast-track negotiations and commit $$ to real-time research into vaccines.

Time to get practical

2005-09-15T10:29:00.000-05:00

Okay... for quite a while now I've been posting on bird flu and the eventual pandemic that most world health experts believe is coming. I've been combing through loads of other sites looking for some solid, practical ideas on what the average person can do to prepare. Frankly, there isn't a lot out there.

Here's my point of view...

If and when this pandemic happens, there will be very little that I can do to prevent myself or Mrs PHB from getting ill - besides the obvious steps of avoiding contact with people who are sick and LOTS of hand washing. But unless we want to become hermits... locked inside our house with no outside contact... we're going to become exposed.

What I can do, is take steps to 'prepare' ourselves for this. When this outbreak happens, an awful lot that we take for granted won't be available to us. Consider what will happen to normal services and commodities when lots of people are sick, dying, or dead... or looking after sick or dying relatives. I'm taking a 'hope for the best, prepare for the worst' attitude. A lot of people regard my attitude as pessimistic; personally, I view it as realistic.

While not exhaustive, the following list contains what I hope is some practical advice regarding simple steps to consider. And the instant I hear about a single, confirmed human-to-human case... I'm going to go nuts getting all this.

** Water - potable (drinkable) water will be critical. There are lots of web-sites that provide estimates on the amount of water required for consumption / cooking / cleaning per person on a daily basis. Consider having a decent supply of bottled water and a really good quality water filter (ie: the type you'd use when camping) on hand.

** Food - I'm leaning toward food that doesn't need to be cooked. Simple stuff. Canned food that can be eaten cold if required ('chunky'-style soups, veggies, beans, tuna, etc.); lean toward protein heavy foods. Cereal / granola / power bars, fruit leather, crackers... things that I would normally buy and use. It won't be an exciting diet, but it will meet basic needs. Salt and sugar would be good to have on hand too.

** Vitamins - Don't count on the local grocery store to have loads of fresh fruit / veggies available. Multi-vitamins can easily provide what's needed.

** Hygiene - Consider having quantities of anti-bacterial hand sanitizer available (something that doesn't need water). I'm also a big fan of lysol wipes, but you can go through those fairly quickly. Other items for personal hygiene are up to you, but lean toward things that don't require a lot of water to use.

** Sewage - Never a pleasant conversation item, but it needs to be addressed. What do you do if you don't have running water for your toilets? I hate to say it, but have a shovel on hand and be prepared to dig a pit in the back yard (if you can manage it, try to make it 4 to 6 feet deep). Bodily waste will spread disease faster than you can imagine, so be certain to keep it as removed as possible. Have a tarp available (for privacy) and consider having some toilet paper and hand sanitizer on hand. If you're on a 'reduced' diet, this will be a less frequent concern; but you still need to know what to do.

** Tools - Shovel, flashlight, battery operated radio, spare batteries, can-opener, water-proof matches, candles, a small camp stove (which I don't recommend using inside), water purifier.

** Medication - Besides the normal ones (aspirin or tylenol), how about some Imodium (or similar product)? If you have any prescriptions... tough, but can you have some extra on hand?

** Heat - Blankets and sweaters are your best friend. Lighting camp stoves or propane BBQs inside is a definite no-no! Besides the obvious fire hazard, you'll build up noxious fumes that can cause other problems. A single candle (not left unattended) can be a surprisingly good source of warmth (physical and psychological).

Now for the million dollar question... what quantities of the above do you need? I have no idea! It all depends on how pessimistic you are. I've read opinions that suggest as little as three days supply to as much as a 90 day supply. Personally... I'm leaning toward a couple of weeks, but I could be convinced to consider as much as a month.

Like I said, not an exhaustive list... but I hope it provides some food for thought.

Futile effort...?

2005-09-15T10:21:00.000-05:00

Here's a small article from The Times Online about steps Britain would take to contain an outbreak (pandemic) of avian influenza.

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Race to contain flu pandemic
By Sam Lister

Authorities in Britain will have just weeks to prepare the country for a flu pandemic once cases start spreading rapidly in Asia, experts said.

Travel restrictions, airport screening and other strategies to contain a possible pandemic would be of little use to stop cases from multiplying rapidly.

According to statistical models carried out by the Health Protection Agency, once one case arrives the spread will be almost impossible to contain.

Experts believe that avian flu, which affects birds, will eventually mutate so that it can spread easily between humans, leading to a pandemic strain.

John Edmunds, of the HPA’s centre for infections, said: “There is only one thing that can be done to stop it, and that is to stamp it out at source and if you’re lucky you can stop a pandemic developing.”

The Government is stockpiling around 14.6 million courses of antiviral drugs — enough to treat about a quarter of the population. Nigel Lightfoot, the HPA’s director of emergency preparedness, said that while a public information campaign was now under way, they did not wish to frighten the public.
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I've only bolded one line in this article. Consider the implications... one case of human-to-human transmitable bird flu is all it would take and, statistically, stopping the spread would be impossible.

GlaxoSmithKline purchases ID Biomedical

2005-09-07T21:23:00.000-05:00

If you live in Canada, you need to know about this.

ID Biomedical is (or was, as the case may be) the only domestic manufacturer of flu vaccine in Canada. It was just sold to British based GlaxoSmithKline (GSK).

I'm undecided about whether this is good news or bad... but I'm not overly pessemistic about the implications regarding flu vaccine for an avian flu pandemic. Here's why... [as usual, my emphasis]

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Global giant's purchase of Canadian flu vaccine maker secures supply

TORONTO (CP) - The sale of Canada's only domestic flu vaccine maker to British pharmaceuticals giant GlaxoSmithKline should strengthen the security of the country's flu vaccine supply, both year to year and during an influenza pandemic, a variety of sources said Wednesday following announcement of the sale.

Government officials will hold discussions with the new owners and review GSK's capacity to meet ID Biomedical's federal contracts. But Health Minister Ujjal Dosanjh said he is confident GlaxoSmithKline can and will fulfil the obligations entered into by ID Biomedical.

"It's a very big player, well known," the health minister said of GSK.

"It's been around for a long time. They haven't gotten here by not respecting international obligations that they've entered into."

The president and CEO of GSK Canada said the company fully intends to live up to the contracts ID Biomedical has with Canada and to seek renewal of them once they expire.

"Our commitments are very clear. We have a commitment to supply annual vaccine to Canada, which we'll continue to do, of course. And ID has the 10-year agreement on pandemic preparedness which we will honour as well," Paul Lucas said.

The first contract, which expires in March 2008, is to provide 75 per cent of the vaccine needed for the annual publicly financed flu shot programs across the country. (Sanofi Pasteur provides the remaining 25 per cent.) This year that amounts to eight million doses from ID Biomedical.

The second is a 10-year, $323 million contract to be at the ready to make enough flu vaccine to protect every Canadian in the event of an influenza pandemic. That contract expires in 2011.

Federal negotiators are in the final stages of negotiating an additional contract with ID Biomedical to make trial batches of a vaccine against the H5N1 flu strain experts worry may be poised to spark a pandemic.

The intent is to test the "mock vaccine" to determine the optimal dosing regime and whether an additive called an adjuvant could be used to stretch limited supplies.

"We're very close to concluding the negotiations. I don't believe they would be impacted," Dosanjh said.

"We would make sure that we raised that issue at the earliest possible (opportunity) as the takeover happens."

An industry watcher said the sale signifies GSK is intent on claiming a major share of the global flu vaccine market, which had been languishing but which has exploded due to concerns over the possibility of a flu pandemic.

"The single most important thing about GSK and IDB is the fact that it reflects a very distinct corporate interest in the growth of the international flu (vaccine) market," said Dr. David Fedson, a retired vaccine industry executive who avidly follows flu vaccine production issues.
GSK's purchase of ID Biomedical will significantly increase its vaccine production capacity. The company's existing plant in Dresden, Germany, produced 30 million doses of its trivalent vaccine, Fluarix, last year.

ID Biomedical is already well on the way to completing a major expansion of its Quebec City facility, which expects to hit annual production of 75 million trivalent doses per year by 2007. And that capacity could be further increased, said Tony Holler, the company's CEO.

"I think this acquisition really speaks to the fact that they want to be No. 1 in flu vaccine on a worldwide basis. And this plant is what's going to get them there," Holler said.

"This is going to be probably their beachhead in the (global) flu vaccine business."

GSK received fast-track approval to enter the U.S. market for this flu season as that country attempts to diversify its flu vaccine sources. Last fall Chiron Corp., one of only two companies to provide injectible vaccine to the U.S. market, had to junk its entire output due to contamination problems in its Liverpool, England, plant.

ID Biomedical is also in the process of bringing its product to the U.S. market; it expects to begin selling vaccine there next flu season.

Fluarix is packaged in a single-dose syringe format whereas ID Biomedical's Fluviral is packaged in multi-dose vials, the format more commonly used in the North American market. GSK intends to continue to produce both products, Lucas said.
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Personally, I don't think Health Minister Ujjal Dosanjh could negotiate a booze up in a brewery... but I'm hopeful that he's just the figure-head who wants to take credit for any efforts to protect us from H5N1. Frankly, I don't care if he does get the credit - as long as we get an H5N1 vaccine! But they've been negotiating this contract for quite a while... and if you read this blog regularly, you'll know that developing a vaccine (even one of marginal effectiveness) will take considerable time. So I'm not holding my breath.

At least GSK will live up to the contractual obligations to provide sufficient vaccine for all Canadians in the event of a pandemic... at least I hope they'll live up to the commitment. Saying it and doing it, particulalry when their own domestic (British) market will be clamouring for vaccines too, are two very different things.

I also like the way this story snuck in the line about the US diversifying its sources of flu vaccine. Fast-track approval by the FDA... impressive. But also telling. I'm under no illussions about how our neighbours to the south will act and react once this pandemic breaks. Their borders will shut so tight so fast it'll make your head spin. And they'll use every tool at their disposal to secure sufficient vaccine for their population... I believe at the expence of anyone and everyone else.

Posting Hiatus

2005-09-07T07:26:00.000-05:00

Business trip to Mexico City...

Mini-vacation out west...

Planning another business trip to Mexico and one to Brazil...

Recruiting two new employees here...

Supporting recruiting two new employees in Mexico...

Translating half of my business communications into Spanish and Portuguese...

Not much time to post for the next little while.

Here's why dead gulls in Finland are a concern

2005-08-27T09:48:00.000-05:00

Pandemic Concerns for H5N1 Wild Bird Flu in Oulu Finland

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H5N1 in Scandinavian countries would be particularly dangerous. In 2003 there was an outbreak of H7N7 in the Netherlands. Over 30 million birds were culled. However H5N7 isolates were found, indicting H7N7 had reassorted with H5N2. Reassortment, or swapping of whole genes, happens during dual infections, when the same host is infected with two different viruses. The H5N7 isolated in 2003 from a mallard duck in Denmark was novel and signaled new genetic combinations between H5 and H7 viruses.

Dual infections can also lead to recombination, where portions of genes are swapped. H7 is dangerous to humans because it can be easily transmitted human to human, which is a property that is lacking in H5N1. However, a dual infection involving H5N1 and H7N7 could lead to recombination where H5N1 acquires the human receptor binding domain on H7. The H5N1 at Qinghai Lake has already acquired mammalian polymorphisms from European swine, providing further evidence for dual infections and recombination.

Thus, having H5N1 in a region that has had recent problems with H7N7 is cause for concern. Similarly, the migration of H5N1 from northern Siberia to Finland would suggest that similar migrations between northern Siberia and Alaska are possible and/or likely. H5N1 in Alaska would lead to H5N1 in British Columbia, which had a H7N3 outbreak in 2004. This outbreak also led to infections in poultry workers and again signals a potential dangerous situation involving co-circulation of H5 and H7.
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Expanding the discussion...

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Birds in northern Siberia also migrate to Alaska, and birds from Alaska spread out across North and South America. Thus, H5N1 in northern Siberia can widely disperse H5N1. H5N1 can replicate easily in a wide variety of tissues and has gained significant evolutionary advantage. Consequently, it is being established in a number of regions, and this increased gene pool will increase the chance of recombination and acquisition of the mammalian receptor binding domain,

The receptor binding domain can be acquired from mammalian sub-strains, but can also be collect from the mammalian sequences in birds. Thus, an expanded host range offers many unique opportunities for recombination.

As H5N1 becomes endemic to more areas, its gene pool enlarges, facilitating productive recombinations. The prior acquisitions of mammalian polymorphims increase the frequency of more recombinations..

Recombinations in birds would be cause for concern, because an efficient transmitted H5N1 could spread among birds, and then infected many people in many locations. These simultaneous outbreaks would limit an effective containment strategy, that depends on treatment within one to two weeks of symptoms

Thus, H5N1 is poised to go global and increase its geographical reach.

Establishment in local birds would create an endemic reservoir, which could be lethal for years to come.
**********

When I was doing my MA, we had a prof that we affectionately nicknamed "Dr. Doom".

Dr. Doom predicted that we would all die "fiery, horrible deaths..." His classes were always so uplifting... :-)

We spent a number of classes discussing biological warfare - the risks and the consequences. But it was always within the context of an agent that was purposely unleashed, never within the context of something developed and unleashed by nature itself.

We all (willingly and enthusiastically) acknowledged that only a 'mad man' would unleash a biological agent. That scenario was scary enough. Knowing that H5N1 has even less of a 'control' than a mad man... it really does send shivers up and down my spine.

H5N1 in Finland?

2005-08-26T20:52:00.000-05:00

It's still unconfirmed... but 50 dead seagulls isn't exactly a positive sign.

Bird flu spreads to new species

2005-08-26T09:22:00.000-05:00

From today's Globe... my emphasis

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Bird flu has killed three rare civets born in captivity at a national park in Vietnam, marking the first time the virus has been reported in the species, officials said Friday.

The Owston civets died in late June at the Cuc Phuong National Park, about 120 kilometres south of Hanoi. Samples sent to a lab in Hong Kong came back positive for the H5N1 virus, [I'd certainly like to know what took so long to confirm this...] said Scott Roberton, technical adviser for the civet conservation program at the park.

He said other animals at the park have been tested -- including chickens, rats and other birds -- but none have tested positive for the virus.

“It's another good example of how dangerous this thing is,” Mr. Roberton said. “No animals are ill, no people are ill. We're still trying to figure out where the source was.”

The civets were not fed any type of poultry, and 20 other civets of the same species in adjacent cages did not become sick, he said. The World Health Organization and Vietnam health officials are expected to test staff and animal keepers to determine if anyone caring for the civets has been infected with bird flu, he said.

Scientists suspect that SARS, or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, which killed nearly 800 people worldwide in 2003, was passed to humans from civet cats and other mongoose-like animals sold in live food markets in southern China.

Peter Horby, an epidemiologist for the WHO in Hanoi, said the development would not make people more susceptible to bird flu because humans have less contact with civets than poultry.

“The interesting thing is that it's a new species,” he said. “It continues to surprise.”

Bird flu had previously been found in other mammals, such as cats and tigers.

The virus has killed 61 people regionwide, with the bulk of those deaths in Vietnam. Health experts have repeatedly warned that the world is due for an influenza pandemic that could kill millions and cripple economies. They fear the bird flu virus will mutate and become easily transmitted from person to person. So far, most human cases have been traced back to contact with poultry.
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This link will take you to the most up-to-date H5N1 map that I'm aware of.

Tamiflu

2005-08-22T11:12:00.000-05:00

Tamiflu... another name you'll want to know.

It's not a cure for the bird flu - that doesn't exist today.

I like this description of what Tamiflu does (note: it's not from the offical web-site).

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Tamiflu is used for treatment of influenza. Its chemical name is Oseltamivir. Its an ethyl ester drug which requires hydrolysis for the release of its active ingredient oseltamivir carboxylate. This compound acts as a inhibitor for the influenza virus. A substance necessary for viruses to grow is called neuraminidase (a type of protein) is inhibited by the active ingredient of the Tamiflu and this results in stopping the growth of the influenza virus in the body. This thus protects the body from the attack of influenza.

Tamiflu is used for the treatment of children above the age of 1 year and adults. The symptoms of influenza should not be more than 2 days old. The mechanism of Tamiflu is quite simple. It attacks the influenza virus in the body and prevents it from spreading to the other parts of the body. It acts as a virus killer and attacks the virus causing flu and does not plainly mask the symptoms of the disease.
**********

We already know that many governments are stockpiling Tamiflu...

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Governments around the world, are also buying up stocks of Roche's drug Tamiflu to treat people exposed to the virus.

According to the Swiss drug company more than 25 governments have already placed orders for Tamiflu in preparation for a potential outbreak of bird flu in humans.
**********

Now there are increasing reports of individuals starting to stockpile personal stores of Tamiflu as a means of protecting themselves against bird flu.

Bird Flu in India?

2005-08-22T08:17:00.000-05:00

This is consistent with my assertion the other day that H5N1 is going to see a multi-directional spread. In fact, it actually expands it by taking H5N1 south.

Spreading to Northern India sends another chill up and down my spine. I don't pretend to be an expert on India - but with a population of over a billion, some very high population density figures, and first- to third-world living conditions all combined, this seems like a highly combustable combination for H5N1 to recombine with another virus into a human-to-human transmittable form.

**********
Is Bird Flu Being Covered-Up in India?

Dr. Khan managed to procure a few vials of Indian vaccines labeled as "Newcastle Disease Vaccine Inactivated I.P. Vet." and "Variant Ranikhet Disease Experimental Vaccine". He then conducted scientific trials with these vaccines. In one trial he administered the vaccine to 25 chickens (the trial group). 25 other chickens (the control group) were not vaccinated. Before vaccination, all 50 chickens tested negative for Avian Influenza antibodies. When the chickens were tested again 34 days after vaccination, the entire trial group was positive for avian flu antibodies, while the entire control group was still negative. The trial group also showed increased level of Newcastle (Ranikhet) Disease antibodies after vaccination. These trials were repeated and results were similar. This shows conclusively that the vaccines were in fact a combined vaccine against Avian Influenza and Newcastle (Ranikhet) Disease.

The above comments are cause for concern. The data indicate that Newcastle Disease vaccine is being used to vaccinate for Newcastle Disease as well as avian influenza. Avian influenza in India has been of interest of late because last spring bar headed geese, infected with H5N1, were discovered at Qinghai Lake in China. Bar headed geese from Qinghai Lake winter in northern India, The dead birds were found when the geese were just arriving from India, raising concerns that H5N1 might be transmitting unreported in India. India has never reported a case of H5N1 in birds or people. The migrations in the spring and now have been assoiaited with human cases of meningitis or encephalitis (see map). The H5N1 in the bar headed geese have changes associated with neurotropism,.

Attention is once again focused on India, because the bar headed geese are now migrating back to India for the winter and are probably transporting and transmitting wild bird flu. The vaccine described above contained H9N2 bird flu, which frequently reassorts and recombines with H5N1. Thus, the vaccine suggests that India has both H9N2 and H5N1 co-circulating.

This danger is compounded by the possibility that a similar vaccine with H5N1 is also being used in India. Newcastle Disease was the infection of choice for hiding H5N1 infections. In 2003 and early 2004 Indonesia insisted that its H5N1 infections were Newcastle Disease. Similarly, China reported an unusually high frequency of Newcastle Disease infections before they reported H5N1. Since the symptoms of Newcastle Disease and avian influenza are similar, Newcastle Disease is a safer diagnosis because it has not been shown to transmit to humans.

However, vaccination with H5 would make testing for H5N1 more difficult. Immunized birds would have H5 antibodies, which could cause problems in a HI assay, which measures H5 antibodies. H5N1 antibodies have been detected in serum collected in 2002 from poultry workers in India, lending additional support to the suspicion that H5N1 has been and is circulating in India.

The finding of H9N2 in Newcastle Disease vaccines warrants a full investigation into unreported H9N2 and H5N1 in India.
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A Name You Should Know

2005-08-22T07:20:00.000-05:00

ID Biomedical Corp

Here's why...

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Pandemic

ID Biomedical has been chosen by the government of Canada to assure a state of national readiness in case of an influenza pandemics and to provide influenza vaccine for all Canadians if such an event were to happen. Canada is one of the few countries in the world that has such a program in place.

Influenza pandemics occur infrequently, but when they do they can have severe and lethal consequences. There have been three in the twentieth century: in 1918, 1957, and 1968. The Spanish flu pandemic in 1918 claimed more than 20 million lives worldwide.

Each year, the World Health Organization identifies the most relevant flu strains for worldwide vaccine production and recommends which strains should be incorporated into the annual vaccine. However, an entirely different strain of flu can periodically emerge. Only the rapid production of a new vaccine can provide protection for the population.

Creating a state of readiness in Canada requires the development of sufficient infrastructure and capacity to provide influenza vaccine for 100% of domestic vaccine needs in the event of an influenza pandemic.

1 www.hc-sc.ca Health Canada Influenza Information Sheet. October 2002
2 National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI ), Statement on influenza vaccination for the 2003- 2004 season, Canada Communicable Disease Report Volume 29 ACS-4 15 August 2003
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What they don't tell you is that the 'deal' between the governement and ID Biomedical hasn't actually been signed yet. It's more a work in progress... an understanding... an agreement in principle, than an actual contract.

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Deal to fund bird-flu vaccine trials due soon

ID Biomedical Corp. said Monday a much-anticipated deal with the Canadian government for the funding of clinical trials of a vaccine to protect against the so-called bird flu should be signed "shortly."
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I love that word 'shortly'... I also love the fact that the Vancouver Sun put it in quotes.

There's nothing like wiggle room to make me feel all warm and cozy.

Here's another little tidbit for the morning. ID Biomedical are expanding their production capacity. Good news, right? Not quite... Here's the start of an ID Biomedical press release dated July 12.

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ID BIOMEDICAL’S FLU VACCINE GRANTED FAST TRACK STATUS BY FDA
Company’s plant upgrade and expansion on track
Capacity expected to increase to approximately 75 million doses annually

Vancouver, BC – July 12, 2005 – ID Biomedical Corporation (TSX: IDB; NASDAQ: IDBE) announced today it has been advised by the United States Food and Drug Administration’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER) that the Company’s Influenza Virus Vaccine (Fluviral™) has been granted a Fast Track designation.
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You have to read quite a bit into the press release to find out that the expanded capacity won't come fully on-line until 2007. They currently produce about 50 million doses per year, so this is a 50% increase in capacity. No small under-taking.

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ID Biomedical expects that with the U.S. regulatory approval of its injectable flu vaccine and a successful pre-approval inspection of its facilities, the company will be able to produce approximately 20-25 million doses of influenza vaccine for the U.S. market in 2006, and approximately 40 million doses in 2007. ID Biomedical is also committed to develop a preservative-free formulation of its product for the pediatric population.
**********

That's a lot of vaccine travelling across the border to the US. The good news, it theoretically leaves sufficient supply (annually) for Canada. The bad news, this is only a dent in what the US would actually need. I'm sure they have other, domestic suppliers, but I'm really concerned about who will get the shipments of vaccine first... us or the US? Makes me wonder if the Cdn gov't has written (or will write) this into the contract with ID Biomedical.

Whooper Swans and Bar Headed Geese

2005-08-20T15:35:00.000-05:00

H5N1 Wild Bird Flu in Whooper Swans and Bar Headed Geese

Why be interested (...concerned...) about this?

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... data suggest H5N1 wild bird flu is migrating to the east and south in Asia, while a separate wave is migrating west into Europe (see map). As the temperature in the north begins to fall, more birds will migrate out of nature reserves at Chany Lake and Qinghai Lake.

H5N1 in bar headed geese, which can migrate 1000 miles in a day, is another indication that H5N1 can be transported far and wide by migratory birds. The H5N1 in the whooper swans adds to the list of wild bird species carrying H5N1.

... it is likely that asymptomatic birds will carry the wild bird version of H5N1 into areas that are endemic for H5N1. This will create an environment for additional dual infections and recombination, which will offer new challenges.
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This means that H5N1 is capable of spreading 1000 miles in a day, without the aid of technology (ie: planes, trains, and automobiles).

Care to guess how many days away you are?

Europe Preparing for the Storm

2005-08-20T15:24:00.000-05:00

Here it comes...

Selcted sections from today's Globe.

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Europe braces as bird flu spreads in Russia

The bird flu that has raised fears of global pandemic has broken into the European continent, Russia confirmed yesterday, as neighbouring countries rushed to prepare their farmers, doctors, and even soldiers on border patrol for the spread of an infection moving rapidly westward from Asia.

Russia has been playing down concerns about avian influenza since it first detected the deadly H5N1 strain in Siberia last month. This week, however, as tests showed the virus has travelled thousands of kilometres across the country, Russian officials quietly invited experts from the United Nations to help.

The fight against bird flu on Europe's eastern flank will gain importance in mid-September, experts say, because migrating waterfowl could carry the virus from Russia into Europe and beyond. One strain of the flu has already killed 61 people in Southeast Asia, largely farmers and others who were in close contact with birds. The World Health Organization has repeatedly voiced concern that mutations might produce a virus that spreads easily between humans, with the potential to kill millions.

Colder weather will push the birds even further southwest to their winter nesting grounds, Mr. Solokha said, which could spread the disease to Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania, Greece, Italy, Spain, and North Africa.

Renate Kuenast, Germany's agriculture minister, told reporters yesterday that Germany is ready to ban free-range poultry. And the government is reportedly considering new control measures for passengers arriving at airports from Russia.

The German authorities appear willing to wait before taking the precautions, but the Dutch Agriculture Ministry yesterday gave its commercial poultry industry just three days to shift their operations indoors, to prevent contact with wild birds.

Britain announced that doctors will receive 50-page technical guides next month to help them identify bird flu and contain outbreaks.
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Too little too late. They can't stop the spread. Maybe they can isolate some of the outbreaks.

I would be more encouraged if I saw greater international cooperation toward the creation of a viable vaccine.

The minute this becomes human-to-human transmittable... borders are going to slam shut all over the world. And on a small scale, doors are going to slam shut all over our city.

It's kind of scary waiting for the inevitable...

BMO Nesbitt Burns Research

2005-08-18T10:55:00.000-05:00

Yesterday I posted about the BMO report concerning bird flu and the potential impacts of a pandemic on financial markets and the global economy.

This is the report.

An Investor's Guide to Avian Flu

I haven't read it yet, but plan to later today.

Multi-Directional Spread?

2005-08-18T07:24:00.000-05:00

If you haven't checked out the map associated with the spread of H5N1, you should. Recombinomics are updating it on-going.

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H5N1 Wild Bird Flu Spreads to Kursk in Western Russia?

"According to the Ministry's report for today makes about 11,300 poultry heads dead of the bird flu in Russia. Now the Ministry has received confirmation of the epidemic in Kursk Oblast."

The above comments indicate the H5N1 wild bird flu has moved to the western edge of Russia (see map). However, the major jump has not been widely reported. If true it seems that H5N1 will spread throughout Europe this fall. Some had speculated that the migration this fall would only affect more southern regions of Europe such as the Caspian and Black Seas, as well as the Mediterranean.

However, H5N1 has been reported in many species and several migratory paths overlap in Europe, so if some or most inflected flocks can transport and transmit H5N1, the widespread infections would be expected.
**********

And more news about Kazakhstan.

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H5N1 Wild Bird Flu Confirmed in Yesil Kazakhstan

Starting August 15 the Yesil district, North Kazakhstan oblast has been held in quarantine for "bird flu". It is the second oblast district where quarantine operations are underway not to let high-pathogenic "bird flu" spread.
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And now possibly Japan...

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H5 Detected in Saitama Japan

Several chickens on a farm in Saitama prefecture, west of the capital, tested positive for the H5 type of bird flu, but studies are still being made to determine the subtype.

"We will have to wait for the final results to be certain, but it is unlikely to be the virulent strain of bird flu," an official with the Saitama prefectural government said.

He said the strain was likely to be the same as that reported earlier this year, which was the weak H5N2 strain.

More information on the basis for the statement that the H5 detected is H5N2 would be useful. The H5N2 isolated earlier in Japan was LPAI (Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza) and was closely related to H5N2 found in the Americas. Prior H5N1 isolated in Japan was HPAI (High Pathogenic Avian Influenza). If only antibody was detected, distinguishing the two H's is more difficult. However, if virus was isolated or detected via PCR, the sequence data will readily distinguish H5 from either H5N1 or H5N2.
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Let's hope Japan confirms H5N2 rather than H5N1. Otherwise the dynamics of how this disease is spreading have increased dramatically. This would open up the entire Pacific Rim.

57 Optical Illusions & Visual Phenomena

2005-08-17T21:16:00.000-05:00

Only go here if you have LOTS of time.

Word of warning... too many and your going to get dizzy. Don't say I didn't warn you :-)

By the way, the eyes follow your mouse.

Financial Community Awakens to H5N1

2005-08-17T11:41:00.000-05:00

From today's Toronto Star... as usual, my emphasis.

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Flu pandemic could trigger a Depression, BMO warns
International trade would grind to a halt
Report has dire predictions for world's economy

A major Canadian investment dealer has added its voice to those warning of the potential global impact of an influenza pandemic, suggesting it could trigger a crisis similar to that of the Great Depression.

Real estate values would be slashed, bankruptcies would soar and the insurance industry would be decimated, a new investor guide on avian influenza warns clients of BMO Nesbitt Burns.

"It's quite analogous to the Great Depression in many ways, although obviously caused by very different reasons," co-author Sherry Cooper, chief economist of the firm and executive vice-president of the BMO Financial Group, said in an interview yesterday.

"We won't have 30 per cent unemployment because frankly, many people will die. And there will be excess demand for labour and yet, at the same time, it will absolutely crunch the economy worldwide."

A leading voice for pandemic preparedness said the report is evidence the financial and business sectors — which have been slow to twig to the implications of a flu pandemic — are finally realizing why public health and infectious disease experts have been sounding the alarm.

"I think that this particular report really signifies the first time that anyone from within the financial world, when looking at this issue, kind of had one of those `Oh my God' moments," said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

"The financial world is finally waking up to the fact that this could be the boulder in the gear of the global economy," he said, suggesting a pandemic could trigger an implosion of international trade unlike anything seen in modern history.

"All the other catastrophes we've had in the world in recent years at the very most put screen doors on our borders. This would seal shut a six-inch steel door," Osterholm said.

Cooper, an influential figure in the financial sector, wrote the report with Donald Coxe, a global portfolio strategist for BMO Financial Group.

Airlines would be grounded, transport of goods would cease, the tourism and hospitality sectors would evaporate and the impact on exports would be devastating, Cooper wrote.

"This would trigger foreclosures and bankruptcies, credit restrictions and financial panic," she warned, suggesting investors reduce debt and risk in their portfolios to be on the safe side.
**********

I'm very curious to see whether this report will get wide-spread attention. I have to assume it will. Sherry Cooper is a well-known and highly regarded Canadian economist. Maybe the attention of Bay Street will shake politicians to action on this.

Brid Flu in Russia

2005-08-17T07:41:00.000-05:00

We've know for a while that H5N1 was in Russia.

It's starting to get more 'main stream media' attention now. From today's Globe:

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Russia tries to contain bird flu outbreak

Russia slaughtered hundreds of fowl Tuesday as fears grew that an avian flu outbreak in Siberia was threatening to spread to the more densely populated western part of the country.
Authorities have already killed more than 11,000 birds, the Emergency Situations Ministry said in a statement, adding that measures were being taken to stop the spread of the virus among domestic fowl and to prevent human cases.

Russia's public health chief warned in a letter to regional health officials that the virus — believed to be transmitted by migratory wild birds — could nonetheless reach the Black Sea and Caspian Sea regions this autumn. [Actually, there are already reports that it has reached the Caspian Sea...]

And in spring next year, bird flu could spread “to the entire European part of Russia,” Gennady Onishchenko wrote... [I don't think they'll be waiting until next spring...]

The Russian government revealed Monday that the H5N1 strain, which can fatally infect humans and which first appeared in western Siberia in July, had spread to the Ural Mountains region of Chelyabinsk. The Ural Mountains divide the European and Asian parts of the country.
**********

The countdown is well and truely on for humna-to-human transmission. Once that happens...

H5N1 to Caspian Sea?

2005-08-16T18:44:00.000-05:00

Unconfirmed reports suggest that H5N1 may have already reached the Caspian Sea.

**********
If the above reports are confirmed, the leading edge of the H5N1 in the Urals / northeast Kazahkstan region would be significantly advanced, Birds that travel this path were expected to eventually reach this region just west of the Caspian Sea, but these latest reports suggest the H5N1 has already arrived. Sightings between these points and the leading edge are anticipated, which would bring H5N1 into areas in Europe and Asia where it has never been reported.

Since the trail of dead migratory birds has gone from Qinghai Lake to Xinjiang to Novosibirsk, to the Urals and now to the Caspian Sea, there is little doubt that the H5N1 will spread throughout the Black, Caspian, and Mediterranian Seas region and on to the Middle East and North Africa.
**********

The H5N1 Tracking Map has been updated.

BARrichello

2005-08-16T08:09:00.000-05:00

Rubens is headed to BAR in '06

Hitting the Century

2005-08-16T07:04:00.000-05:00

Believe it or not, this is post # 100 for me - I've hit the century mark! I'll even pat myself on the back for that :-) I have to admit, when I started, I wasn't sure how long I was going to stick with it...

Here's the headline that caught my attention this morning (from The Globe, as usual). Investors Set to Sue CIBC. Here's what I read...

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A Toronto legal firm is preparing to launch a multibillion-dollar class-action lawsuit against Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and its board of directors following the bank's massive settlement with Enron Corp. investors two weeks ago, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Roy Elliott Kim O'Connor LLP (REKO) hopes to file the suit later this month on behalf of CIBC shareholders, who have seen the value of their holdings plunge by 12 per cent since the bank agreed to pay $2.4-billion (U.S.) to resolve allegations it took part in "an elaborate scheme" to defraud Enron investors.

The precise size of the class action against CIBC has not been determined, but it will likely seek damages equivalent to the amount of the Enron settlement, which has helped to erase approximately $3.3-billion (Canadian) of CIBC's market value in the past two weeks, the source said.

Investors have speculated that CIBC could face additional class-action suits in the United States.
**********

I have a couple of problems with this.

First, as Canadians we are rapidly becoming an overly litigous country. Following in the footsteps of our neighbours to the south, there is a ground-swell of class-action lawsuits. Apart from keeping lawyers in expensive suits and fancy cars, what's the purpose? Do we really need to be a "sue at every opportunity" society? I have no problem with resolving issues in the courts and seeking fair and reasonable financial compensation for legitimate damages, but I have to wonder when enough is enough. There's so much money at stake that it's easy to find a legal firm willing to lead the charge. But are we, as individuals, so desperate for a few more dollars that we're willing to leap on the class-action band-wagon at every opportunity? Think back to the recent crash at Pearson... In less than 24 hours a class-action lawsuit was launched. I don't get it.

Second, from a investor point of view, this lawsuit doesn't seem to make sense. Follow the logic. My shares in CIBC have gone down due to a larger than expected legal settlement. I'm upset. I decide to sue. If I win, there will be another legal settlement which could further degrade the value of my shares. I win the case, but I lose even more value in my investments - because 'big' investors (like pension funds) aren't likely to dump CIBC shares - banks have been making record profits for years and paying healthy dividends to boot. Doesn't really make sense to me. Particularly when you read that they are contemplating seeking damages in the $2.4 billion range. Okay, some big pension fund might get a windfall in cash. But smaller investors, will only lose. It unnecessarily hurts the market performance of an otherwise decent investment.

Sometimes I just have to scratch my head... Makes me wonder if this lawsuit was actually conceived / initiated by an investor or by Roy Elliott Kim O'Conner LLP?

**********
The source said the law firm has already lined up a CIBC investor as lead plaintiff, but is attempting to recruit a major shareholder, like a pension fund, to fill the role...

The boutique firm specializes in class-action suits...

The class action being planned by REKO...
**********

If you could see me right now, you'd know that I'm shaking my head.

US Senate Attention for H5N1

2005-08-15T11:04:00.000-05:00

On August 3rd, Bill First MD, United States Senator for Tennesse and Senate Majority Leader gave this speech.

In it, First discusses the requirement for a "Manhattan Project for the 21st Century" - a project to combat the spread of infection disease. His speech was given within the context of H5N1. It's worth reading the entire speech, but here are sections that I consider particularly important.

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But we will not be able to sleep through what is likely coming soon -- a front of unchecked and virulent epidemics, the potential of which should rise above your every other concern. For what the world now faces, it has not seen even in the most harrowing episodes of the Middle Ages or the great wars of the last century. We are unprepared for rampant epidemics. And even worse, we haven’t taken sufficient note of the fact that though individually each might be devastating, they are susceptible of either purposeful or accidental combination, in which case they could be devastating almost beyond imagination.

When viral diseases evolve normally -- such as in the typical course of the human influenza virus undergoing small changes in its antigenicity and killing an average of 500,000 people annually throughout the world -- it is called an antigenic drift. When they emerge with the immense power derivative of a jump from animal to human hosts followed by mutation or recombination with a human virus -- as in the influenza pandemic of 1918 - 1919 in which 500 million people were infected and 50 million died, including half a million in the United States -- it is called an antigenic shift. Antigenic shifts are the result of random, fortuitous, and unavoidable changes.

The evidence suggests that we could be at the threshold of a major shift in the antigenicity of not merely one but several categories of pathogens -- for rarely if ever have we observed among them such variety, richness, opportunities for combination, and alacrity to combine and mutate. You read the tid bits and pieces in the news. HIV, variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (mad cow), avian influenzas such as H5N1, and SARS -- all are merely the advance patrols of a great army forming out of sight, the lightning that however silent and distant gives rise to the dread of an approaching storm, a storm for which we are unprepared.

In 1918 - 1919 the mortality rate was 3 percent, which seems merciful in comparison to the 50 percent mortality rate of today’s highly pathogenic H5N1 avian flu. In just the last 18 months, avian flu has caused the death or destruction of over 140 million birds in 11 Asian nations. And, most alarmingly, in 4 of those nations, H5N1 has taken the worried jump from birds to infect humans. Should the virus shift and human-to-human transmission become sustained, imagine how many human lives avian flu will take. How then would a nation greatly moved and touched by three thousand dead, react to 5 or 50 million dead?

Hospitals and our long neglected public health infrastructure would be quickly overwhelmed. Panic, suffering, and the spread of the disease would intensify as -- because people were dead, sick, or afraid -- the economy ceased to function, electrical power flickered out, and food and medical supplies failed to move. Over months or perhaps years, scores of millions might perish, with whole families dying in their houses and no one to memorialize them or remove their corpses. Almost without doubt, the epidemic would spread to the rest of the world, for in biological warfare an attack upon one country is an attack upon all. Every vestige of modernity would be overturned. The continual and illusory flirtation with immortality that is a hallmark of our scientific civilization would shatter. And we would find ourselves looking back upon even the most difficult times of the last century as a golden age.

The evidence I have seen as doctor, scientist, and policy maker, the patterns of history, and new facts -- such as rapid, voluminous, and essential travel and trade; the decline of staffed hospital beds; and a now heavily urbanized and suburbanized American population dependent as never before upon “just in time” but easily disrupted networks of services and supply -- lead me to believe that such pathogens could result in the immensely high death tolls to which I have alluded.

Take the virus that is today the gravest threat -- avian flu. A vaccine would not become available, at best, until six to nine months after the outbreak of a pandemic. Even then, the vaccine would not be available in mass quantities. And even then, we do not know if that vaccine would work. It’s still experimental. So, in essence, we have no vaccine for avian flu. Nor do we have enough of the only effective anti-viral agent Tamiflu stockpiled to treat more than one percent of our population for avian flu.

propose an unprecedented effort -- a “Manhattan Project for the 21st Century” -- not with the goal of creating a destructive new weapon, but to defend against destruction wreaked by infectious disease and biological weapons. I speak of substantial increases in support for fundamental research, medical education, emergency capacity, and public health infrastructure. I speak of an unleashing of the private sector and unprecedented collaboration between government and industry and academia. I speak of the creation of secure stores of treatments and vaccines and vast networks of distribution. Above all, I speak not of the creation of a forest of bureaucratic organization charts and the repetition of a hundred million Latinate words in a hundred million meetings that substitute for action, but action itself -- without excuses, without exceptions -- with the goal of protecting every American and the capability to help protect the people of the world. I call for the creation of the ability to detect, identify, and model any emerging or newly emerging infection, present or future, natural or otherwise -- for the ability to engineer the immunization and cure, and to manufacture, distribute, and administer what we need to get it done and to get it done in time.

Today I’ve tried to impress upon you the urgency I feel in a matter concerning not only America but the world -- for pandemics whether natural or intentional know neither borders, nor race, nor who is rich nor who is poor. They know only what is human, and it is this that they strike, casting aside the vain definitions that otherwise divide us. It is my pre-eminent obligation as a public servant and my sacred duty as a physician to ask you to support the essence of this proposal. In respect of human mortality, for the sake of your own families and children, for the honor and satisfaction of doing right, I bid you join in this effort.
**********

A VERY intriguing proposal. My fear is that we are too late for such a proposal to make a meaningful difference. I believe that it would take too long for such a project to be effectively set up, staffed, and begin research and production of the necessary antidotes.

Worse still, there would be a lag between the time that an antidote could be manufactured for American use and when the antidote would be available internationally (ie: for us). Not for a minute do I believe that the project team would withhold all available information regarding an antidote, but I think the US production capacity would be quicker to mobilize and quicker to produce the required quantities of a vaccine.

Know the old saying "you snooze, you lose"?

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...

Countdown to Europe

2005-08-14T11:31:00.000-05:00

This is a map that documents the spread of H5N1. Color coded circles for wild bird H5N1:
May = Red
June - Orange
July = Yellow
August = Green

The ovals are for human disease outbreaks that are suspected of being related:
Orange Oval = Sharkin, Udmurtia, Russia (fever, meningitis, gastro-intestinal)
Blue Oval = Tomsk, Tomsk, Russia (fever, meningitis)
Red Oval = Moklakap, Chita, Russia (fever, vomiting)

Leadership Summit

2005-08-14T10:56:00.000-05:00

I was at a Leadership Summit for the last few days. Interesting, invigorating, refreshing, and challenging!

It was being satallite broadcast to more than 50,000 participants in over 100 cities. There were about 750 participants in our location... and we were engrossed by it for two and a half days.

The speaker list was very impressive. Here's just a sample:
- Bill Hybels (Senior Pastor Willow Creek Community Church, author of Courageous Leadership)
- Rick Warren (founding Pastor of Saddleback Church, author of The Purpose Driven Life)
- Ken Blanchard (author of The One Minute Manager)
- John Maxwell (author of The 21 Laws Irrefutable Laws of Leadership)
- Colleen Barrett (President of Southwest Airlines)
- Jack Groppel (auther of The Corporate Athelete)
The list goes on and on. They all complimented each other very well.

There were 9 sessions over the two and a half days. Just look at the session titles:
- The Leader's State of Mind
- Leadership is Stewardship
- Seeing the Unseen
- Putting Yourself at Risk: The Price of Leadership
- The Story of Good Leaders: When Your Calling Changes
- Making a Great Idea Fly
- The Mental Toughness of a Leader (combined with Action Steps for Monday)
- A Leader's Unshakeable Resolve
- These Things We Must Do

I get a ton of brochures about all kinds of seminars and workshops. They usually range between $900 and $2900 - depending on the topic and speakers. Would you believe me if I said the highest price paid by a participant to register for this summit was $249.

It's going to take me a while to 'unpack' everything that I heard and saw... But it will be worth the time and effort. Because of what I do for a living, I'm a little 'jaded' about the value of most seminars and workshops in general. But this one is going to have a lasting impact on me - at home, at church, and at work.

Steven Fletcher

2005-08-10T08:45:00.000-05:00

Rick Mercer has a great post about Steven Fletcher called "My Dinner with Steven".

A couple of funny stories in there that you should read.

Wikipedia has an interesting bio/entry on Steven.

Avian flu vaccine proves effective

2005-08-10T07:41:00.000-05:00

At least, that's the headline in today's Globe.

But read the story... (my emphasis)

**********
Enthusiasm over the news that U.S. researchers had proven a vaccine is effective against the H5N1 avian flu strain was tempered yesterday with word that it took massive doses -- roughly 12 times the normal amount -- to produce a protective response in humans.

With global vaccine production capacity already falling far short of what would be needed in a flu pandemic, experts suggested it is critical to increase research into ways to produce the same response with smaller doses of antigen, the substance in a vaccine that activates the immune system.

"I think these results suggest the world is even less prepared than more prepared," said Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy.

"And unfortunately many policy-makers might take this announcement as being 'We've hit the gold mine' -- when in fact I would suggest we are having a hard time even finding water."

In light of the U.S. findings, federal health officials said studies into a yet-to-be-made Canadian H5N1 vaccine will be focused on the role antigen-sparing techniques could play in pandemic vaccine production.

It's hoped those studies will begin late next summer.

"It's something that we are definitely considering in the design, because of what we know, that it could take lots of doses," said Theresa Tam, associate director of respiratory diseases at the Public Health Agency of Canada.

"It's of great interest to us to look at these types of antigen-sparing strategies, whether it be adjuvants or whole viruses."

Adjuvants are chemicals that, when mixed with vaccine, kick the body's immune response up several notches, allowing a smaller dose of vaccine to produce a bigger effect.

Vaccines made of whole viruses, rather than viral particles, are known to provoke greater immune responses as well but are also known to produce more side-effects on administration.

February's federal budget set aside $34-million for production of trial batches of an H5N1 vaccine. But Canada's flu vaccine manufacturer, ID Biomedical, has still not been given the go-ahead to do the work.

"We're close to entering into a contract. Hopefully, it will be done shortly," Health Minister Ujjal Dosanjh said yesterday.

The company has said it would take 12 months from contract signing to vaccine delivery, because it must build and license a special high-biosecurity facility within its existing vaccine plant.

Public Health Minister Carolyn Bennett said yesterday that the apparent success in developing an avian-flu vaccine will not in itself eliminate the risks of a global influenza pandemic.

In a telephone interview from Hong Kong, where she is attending a meeting about pandemics and public-health issues, she noted that mutations of influenza viruses occur rapidly and that the next threat may in fact come from a different strain.
**********

Not exactly encouraging news.

We're 'close' to signing a contract that will require 12 months to execute. We're 'close' to starting a research program that will actually look into developing a Canadian response to H5N1. We're 'close' to looking at antigen-sparing strategies.

How 'close' does H5N1 hav to get to Canada before the Goverment kicks into high gear and actaully takes meaningful, concrete action?!?!

Ebola and H5N1

2005-08-09T07:34:00.000-05:00

Recombinomics is hypothesizing that the 'mystery illness' in China could be a combination of ebola and H5N1.

**********
All of the above sounds like a viral component such as H5N1 bird flu and a recombinant Ebola is responsible for the high case fatality rate and rapid spread to humans.
**********

Combining a hemorrhagic fever like ebola with H5N1 would be devastating! While deadly, ebola can be successfully contained, mainly due to how it spreads. If this combined virus were capable of airborne human to human transmission...

And because you can't have too much pessimism too early in the morning (my emphasis):

**********
H5N1 Bird Flu Evolution and Spread Outpace Pandemic Vaccine

Medical experts in Asia, where all of the human and poultry cases of bird flu have occurred, cautioned on Sunday that formidable obstacles remained before the new vaccine would become a useful tool in preventing a pandemic.

The biggest impediment may be the rapid evolution of the virus itself.

Dr. Guan Yi, a Hong Kong University microbiologist, said that the flu virus that has just appeared this summer among migratory birds roosting on an island in Qinghai Lake in western China had quite a few genetic differences from previous viruses that had circulated in Southeast Asia.

The previous viruses appear to have been used in the successful vaccine tests this spring and summer in the United States.

"It keeps changing, it keeps evolving," he said. "We don't know how much the vaccine matches."

The above comments confirm the concerns about the ability of the pandemic vaccine that is being developed worldwide to have utility against the H5N1 that has emerged from Qinghai Lake and is now rapidly spreading across southern Russia and northern Kazakhstan.

This version of H5N1 is considerably different than the H5N1 in Vietnam and the current vaccine is unlikely to have significant activity. The new vaccine requires at least 2 injections of 90 micrograms. The 180 micrograms is 12 times higher then the amount used for a human flu isolate. Moreover, the dose response is border-line, so a third injection may be required. Thus, almost 20 times the normal dose may be necessary, and the H5N1 has a tendency to kill the chicken eggs, reducing the yield. Thus, the availability of chicken eggs could severely limit the amount of vaccine produced and could conceivable require 50 times the number of eggs required to make a vaccine against one human isolates (the current human trivalent vaccine is made against three viruses using 15 micrograms each).

These data suggest that the vaccine under development may not work well against the 2005 H5N1 in Vietnam, which only has 4 amino acids changes in HA, because the vaccine against the immunizing isolate is so weak.

As H5N1 closes in on Europe and threatens to spread throughout Asia and beyond, it is clearly time to rethink and retool vaccine development, which uses technology developed shortly after the first human flu virus was isolated in 1933. The techniques used in 2005 are strikingly similar to the technology of the 1940's, and the case fatality rate of the 2005 H5N1 is 10 to 20 times higher than the 1918 pandemic virus.

Although efficient human-to-human H5N1 transmission has not been confirmed, the rapid evolution of H5N1 and its increased host and geographical range, creates a very unstable genetic situation.

This instability could have dire consequences in the very near term.
**********

I'm still amazed at how little coverage this story is getting. But dollars to donuts, it's going to be getting a lot more coverage as soon as H5N1 'officially' spreads to Europe - particularly western Europe.

I wouldn't have thought about this

2005-08-09T07:20:00.000-05:00

I haven't seriously looking into VoIP yet. I know it's gaining popularity and has the potential to reduce long distance bills (... substantially). I never considered the 'law enforcement' downside of this technology.

**********
VoIP has police forces worried

From 911 dispatchers in Winnipeg to counterterrorism sleuths in Ottawa, Canadian law-enforcement agencies are worried about a new technology that is moving telephone conversations onto the Internet.

Voice over Internet protocol, or VoIP, greatly diminishes consumer long-distance costs by routing calls through high-speed modems, but police fear it may have an adverse effect on public safety.

Landlines have made it relatively simple for authorities to get a lock on, say, a distressed family reporting a home invasion, or to tap a terrorist's phone line so that they could listen in on orders given to henchmen.

But as such conversations have begun to migrate onto computer networks, and be broken up into encrypted little packets of data that zip wily-nilly around the globe before being put back together again. This means callers' locations are being obscured like never before.
**********

It's actually the 911 issue that concerns me the most. But if they've managed to deal w/ cell phones, I'm sure they can come up with a solution for VoIP.

As for phone tapping... I'm sure it won't take long for police forces to have the required technology at their fingertips. Frankly, I'd be a little surprised if the technology didn't exist today. Sure, it probably needs a lot of processing power to make it work, but surely this isn't outside the reach of a modern, sophisticated police force. I don't think they'll be getting it in Dog River any time soon... but I'm not too worried about CSIS, the RCMP, Toronto Police Service, etc.

Small Victory

2005-08-09T07:14:00.000-05:00

I consider this a small victory against spam. Hopefully lots more to follow.

The $$ amount will be meaningless to Microsoft. My hunch is that it will be meaningless to OptInRealBig.com too - no matter what their 'official line' may be.
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Spammer to pay Microsoft $7-million

A man once accused of being one of the world's top three spammers has agreed to pay $7-million (U.S.) in a settlement with Microsoft Corp., the software maker announced Tuesday.

The money from Scott Richter and his company, OptInRealBig.com of Westminster, Colo., will be used to boost efforts to combat the illegal mass sending of unsolicited and misleading e-mail known as spam and other computer misuse, said Microsoft's chief counsel, Brad Smith, in a news release issued before business hours.

“This settlement is a victory for consumers who rely on the Internet because it also means fewer unwanted e-mails in your inbox,” Mr. Smith said.

“After covering our legal expenses for the case, Microsoft will then reinvest every penny from this settlement,” he said. “We'll dedicate $5-million dollars to increase our Internet enforcement efforts and expand technical and investigative support to help law enforcement address computer-related crimes.”
**********

I'm fortunate in that I don't actually get a lot of spam. I would say that I'm probably in the 5-10 messages a week combined for my work and personal e-mail addresses. However, when I consider the lost productivity that results from spamming... $7 million doesn't really seem to make a dent in it.

DNA Vaccine

2005-08-06T18:15:00.000-05:00

I don't pretend to understand all of this... but I have to assume the researchers at the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) do.

Via the CDC website, you can access Emerging Infectious Diseases - "A peer-reviewd journal tracking and analyzing disease trends".

Here's an abstract from this journal - bolding mine.

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DNA Vaccine Expressing Conserved Influenza Virus Proteins Protective against H5N1 Challenge Infection in Mice

Suzanne L. Epstein,* Terrence M. Tumpey,† Julia A. Misplon,* Chia-Yun Lo,* Lynn A. Cooper, ‡ Kanta Subbarao,‡ Mary Renshaw,‡ Suryaprakash Sambhara,‡ and Jacqueline M. Katz‡*Food and Drug Administration Rockville, Maryland, USA; †United States Department of Agriculture, Athens, Georgia, USA; and ‡Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Influenza vaccination practice, which is based on neutralizing antibodies, requires being able to predict which viral strains will be circulating. If an unexpected strain, as in the 1997 H5N1 Hong Kong outbreak, or even a pandemic emerges, appropriate vaccines may take too long to prepare. Therefore, strategies based on conserved influenza antigens should be explored. We studied DNA vaccination in mice with plasmids expressing conserved nucleoprotein (NP) and matrix (M) from an H1N1 virus. After vaccination, mice were challenged with A/H5N1 viruses of low, intermediate, and high lethality. A/NP+A/M DNA vaccination reduced replication of A/Hong Kong/486/97 (HK/486), a nonlethal H5N1 strain, and protected against lethal challenge with more virulent A/Hong Kong/156/97 (HK/156). After HK/156 exposure, mice survived rechallenge with A/Hong Kong/483/97 (HK/483), although the DNA vaccination alone protected poorly against this highly virulent strain. In the absence of antigenically matched hemagglutinin-based vaccines, DNA vaccination with conserved influenza genes may provide a useful first line of defense against a rapidly spreading pandemic virus.
**********

If I understand this abstract correctly, the best vaccine would be one designed specifically for H5N1. However, in the absence of such a vaccine, DNA vaccination may offer some (although limited) protection. I guess the disappointing news is that DNA vaccination appears to be better suited to protect against the low and intermediate lethality strains, not so well for the most lethal strains.

In a related dispatch, you can see some conclusions regarding the cost-benefit of stockpiling drugs for an influenza pandemic. I found Table 1 interesting, as it looked at work-days lost under a couple of different treatment regimes. There was also another table that gave 'attack ranges' by age group... interesting.

The Public Health Agency of Canada has a really good Pandemic Influenza page - with a great FAQ section.

But enough on this...

Recombinomics

2005-08-06T17:45:00.000-05:00

I just came across a gem of a site for information regarding H5N1 and other infectious nasties.

Recombinomics, founded by Henry L Niman PhD (see here for a brief bio).

He seems to have an even more pessimistic outlook on H5N1 than I have... I've copied a really interesting article here - inbedded links are from the Recombinomics article, bolding is mine.

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H5N1 Bird Flu Evolves Away From Pandemic Vaccine

An earlier human vaccine against A(H5N1) avian influenza virus was prepared after it first appeared in the world, in Hong Kong in 1997. That vaccine was never fully developed or used, and the strain has mutated since then.

In interviews over recent days, Dr. Fauci has said that tests so far have shown that the new vaccine produced a strong immune response among the small group of healthy adults under age 65 who volunteered to receive it, although the doses needed were higher than in the standard influenza vaccine offered each year.

The above comments on the development of a pandemic vaccine are overshadowed somewhat by the rapid spread of H5N1 across Russia, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia. Although the sequence of the rapidly spreading H5N1 has not been published, descriptions of the sequence sound much like the recently published H5N1 sequences from Qinghai Lake. Those sequences suggest that the current pandemic vaccine being tested worldwide will not be effective against the H5N1 expected to spread throughout Asia and Europe in the upcoming weeks.

As noted above, the vaccine produced against the 1997 H5N1 that infected 18 people in Hong Kong was not developed because the 2004 H5N1 had evolved away fro the vaccine. The pandemic vaccine uses 2 of the 8 genes from H5N1 and analysis of the HA and NA shows why the 1997 vaccine was not effective. There were 20 amino acid differences between 1997 and 2004 in the HA protein and 26 differences in the NA protein.

Consequently, the pandemic vaccine in clinical trials was developed. Sequences from HA and NA of some of the 2005 H5N1 from Vietnam have been deposited at the Los Alamos National Labs Flu Database and there are just 4 differences between 2004 and 2005 in HA and 3 differences in NA. Consequently an earlier announcement indicated that thre was no need to switch vaccine targets.

However, the sequence of the isolates from Qinghai Lake indicate that there will be a major problem using the new vaccine against the H5N1 being spread by migratory birds. As noted above, the new vaccine requires more virus than the human vaccine. The new trial used several dosages to determine thata higher dose was required. In addition, a booster shot was necessary. Thus, the response was not robust and two shots are required. These data suggest that the vaccine requires a close match to be effective. Although 2005 isolates out of Vietnam may be close enough, isolates from Qingahi clearly are not.

The differences between 2004 H5N1 form Vietnam and 2005 H5N1 from Qinghai Lake are 18 changes in HA and 13 changes in NA. Thus, the number of differences between H5N1 in 2004 in Vietnam and 2005 in Qinghai Lake are almost as great as the differences between 1997 and 2004, which covers 7 years.

Moreover, as H5N1 migrates back to Vietnam and other Asian countries where H5N1 has become endemic, there will be more recombination and more change, further limiting the usefulness of the current vaccine.

Although the suspect cases in Kazakhstan have yet to be confirmed and Russia has reported no human cases, the sequence data suggest that H5N1 from Qinghai will cause significant problems in the upcoming months. Boxun reports indicate that these isolates have already caused significant numbers of deaths in humans, and China has admitted to testing only two people exposed to H5N1 at Qinghai Lake.

The rapid spread of H5N1 across Asia and the expected spread through Europe dictate that a new pandemic vaccine effort be initiated, because it seems likely that the current vaccine will offer little protection to emerging recombinants in the upcoming months.
**********

Can't add anything to this.

Like we didn't know this... (#2)

2005-08-05T07:52:00.000-05:00

No kidding...

F1 Silly Season

2005-08-04T07:44:00.000-05:00

The F1 Silly Season is well and truly underway!

Rumours are flying everywhere about possible line up changes for most of the F1 teams. Looks like we know one change for sure. Massa will be replacing Barrichello at Ferrari. [Tip of the hat to Damian for also blogging about this.]

We've known for a while that Barrichello wasn't as happy with Ferrari as one might hope. Too bad, because he is an amazing driver in his own right. Overshadowed by far by Schumi... but who isn't?

For Felipe... this is a big step up from Sauber. It hasn't been a 'great' 2005 season for him, but he's been consistently solid - performing well for a mid-field contentder. He's proven his driving ability and I think the move to Ferrari will only improve his skills and, who knows, maybe even set him up for a world championship a few years down the road.

Bird Flu and Mystery Pig Illness

2005-08-03T06:59:00.000-05:00

Remember that mystery illness in China that had killed 19 people? Apparently it's up to 36 now. I'm still looking for confirmation of this story, but saw it on the CP24 'news scroll' this morning as I was having breakfast.

I also saw a headline that bird flu is spreading in Russia. Looking for more on this too.

Updates to follow if/when I track more down.

UPDATE

Eblola in China? [Tip of the hat to Damian for pointing me to this.]

I certainly don't want to jump to any conclusion, but if this is true, then it is VERY scary!!!

Check out this article from The Strait Times (part of AsiaOne). It's a couple of days old, but they are certainly making the link. Here's a link to the WHO's ebola fact sheet. And here's what happens when there is an ebola outbreak. 50 to 90% of all clinical cases are fatal.

Expert Analysis

2005-08-03T06:48:00.000-05:00

I don't claim to be an expert on aircraft or airport operations... But Mrs. PHB would definitely qualify for as an expert in airport operations (given her career path w/ the GTAA). Personally, I'm more of a pseudo-qualified amatuer.

In a desperate bid to get expert analysis on the news yesterday as quickly as possible following the crash of Air France 358, Global News stood out for me as pathetic.

Very early on, their 'expert' had the following qualifications: a private pilots license... that's it. I'm sorry, but a private pilots license hardly qualifys you to be making 'expert' observations and analysis regarding a plane crash, rescue operations, or continuing airport operations during such an emergency.

As we were listening to Global's 'expert', even I could tell that he didn't have a clue what he was talking about - making numerous factually incorrect statements and a series of assertions and assumptions that were far to premature. Mrs PHB was getting so animated about what the 'expert' was saying that she was actually bouncing up and down on the couch.

The really unfortunate part of parading an 'expert' like this around, is that a lot of people become mis-informed and quickly jump to false conclusions about what should and should not be happening.

I expect more from broadcast news! I know that they're trying to react quickly to a major breaking news story, but the least they could do is qualify their 'expert' opinion by balancing his credentials with his his statements and assertions. Disappointing.

Long Weekend Traffic

2005-08-02T11:23:00.000-05:00

Here's a little gem from The Globe today.

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More than 1,500 drivers have been ticketed and 150 allegedly unsafe vehicles have been picked off the roads as the hordes headed back from cottage country after the long weekend.

Among the worst offenders were the U-Haul rental company's trucks, OPP Sergeant Cam Woolley said.

Out of 15 of the company's rental trucks that were inspected, 11 were pulled off the road.

Sgt. Woolley said that most of the 1,500 traffic violators were ticketed for speeding.

The fastest car, an Acura, was clocked at 180 kilometres an hour.

"[The driver] said he forgot his wife's birthday and was rushing to get a gift," Sgt. Woolley said. "We looked at the Highway Traffic Act and there's no exemptions for angry wives."
**********

I live quite near Highway 400 (for those of you not in the GTA, the 400 is one of the major routes out of Toronto and up to 'cottage country'; it is VERY heavily travelled on weekends - long weekends in particular) and am delighted by the work of the OPP to make the highways safer. I'm delighted to see them ticketing so many speeders and even more delighted to see so many unsafe vehicles taken off the road.

I think U-Haul need to be hauled to court! It is totally unacceptable that they would allow unsafe vehicles on the road. I feel very sorry for the poor folks who were depending on those vehicles to move this past weekend. They have been inconvenienced to an unacceptable degree. Based on this, I would love to see the OPP look for a court order forcing U-Haul to have every vehicle in their fleet safety examined (and repaired) w/in the next 30-60 days. This will compound the inconvenience for folks looking to move in Aug / Sept / Oct; but better inconvenience in advance than having your rental truck taken off the road in the middle of a move.

Oh yeah... I think OPP Sgt Cam Wooley is a hoot :-) He's featured every long weekend on CP24's Cottage Patrol segments. He has an amusing way of pointing out the idiots that are allowed to drive on our highways. He's also doing a tough job and probably doesn't get the thanks that he deserves.

Contradiction

2005-08-02T11:08:00.000-05:00

The price of a barrel of New York's benchmark light sweet crude for September delivery rose to $62.30 before finishing trade at a new closing high of $61.57, up $1 from Friday's close. The previous session record was $61.35 on July 6

Now... depending on which article you choose to read, you will either chalk this up to:

The death of King Fahd

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Crude oil rose to a record $62.30 (U.S.) a barrel after the death of King Fahd heightened concern about the stability of the world's largest oil exporter.
**********

or due to refinery problems in Texas and the UK

**********
An Exxon Mobil Corp. refinery in the state of Illinois reported technical problems, denting its production capacity of 245,000 barrels a day (b/d).

And BP PLC , already hit by a fire at its biggest refinery, in Texas, last Thursday, said its Schiehallion oil platform off the West Shetland Islands remained shut following a fire there Friday.

A BP spokesman said the company was "looking at days, not weeks" for repairs to be completed and production to resume on the platform.

The fire at Schiehallion, which produces about 120,000 b/d...
**********

Personally, I don't think the Saudi's are looking to make any significant changes to their oil policies any time soon. It would be inconsistent. Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz was named King Fahd's successor yesterday. He's been the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia for a decade now. If the policy was going to change, it would have already done so.

I think the current 'spike' is due to the refinery issues - which is actually scarier.

Saudi Arabia produces somewhere in the neighbourhood of 9.5 million barrels a day, with an estimated capacity of about 11 million b/d. Knowing that there is at least 1.5 million b/d 'slack' in the global capacity (before counting any other oil producer anywhere in the world), seeing such a price hike when there are problems with less than 350,000 b/d (problems... not absolute cessation...) gives me concern.

19 Million Amps

2005-07-28T07:22:00.000-05:00

This story will probably fly under the radar for most people.

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Scientists say Nevada experiment generated a current equal to four times all the electrical power on Earth

Scientists at the Nevada Test Site said they generated a current Wednesday equal to roughly four times all the electrical power on Earth.

The current, which created pressures in materials millions of times greater than normal, was part of an experiment to better understand nuclear weapons.

The experiment was conducted at the test site's Atlas Pulsed Power Facility by scientists from Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, along with staff from the test site and contractor Bechtel Nevada.

During the few millionths of a second that it operated, the 590-tonne Atlas pulsed-power generator discharged nearly 19 million amps of current through an aluminum cylindrical shell about the size of a tuna can, the National Nuclear Security Administration said.

Atlas, which works as a giant power multiplier, was designed as part of a U.S. Energy Department program to determine the readiness of the United States' nuclear stockpile without underground testing.

It was built at Los Alamos and recently moved to the Nevada Test Site, a proving ground just north of Las Vegas.
**********

A few comments on this.

First. WOW! This is an amazing accomplishment.

Second. I have to hope that someone is looking to put this capability to use regarding world energy requirements. The possibility of mulitplying exisiting power to this degree is very exciting.

Third. I'm a little unnerved that this research is taking place w/in the context of nuclear weapons. It harkens back to the cold war arms race a little too much for my comfort. It certainly raises some questions for me about the requirements for this sort of power w/in the context of a weapons program. In no way am I against the 'military establishment', but even I have to wonder why research of this nature is taking place. At what point is enough enough?

Mystery Illness part 2

2005-07-27T07:33:00.000-05:00

Chinese officials are blaming pig bacteria.

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Pig bacteria to blame for deaths in China

China's Ministry of Health confirmed yesterday that a mysterious illness that has killed at least 19 people was caused by a bacteria spread among pigs, and suspended all pork exports from the area.

The disease has proved so deadly that more than a quarter of the 67 confirmed cases in the southwestern province of Sichuan have resulted in death.
**********

At a mortality rate of 28.35%, I'd be more than a little concerned about how the Chinese government is going to contain this. We have so little information about how people became infected, how it spreads, etc. Fabulous that they have suspended pork exports from the area, but if this is capable of spreading between people, without the further 'aid' of pigs... then I think we have more to worry about.

Frankly, given the source of the information, I'm not entirely convinced that 'pig bacteria' is the cause of all this. That's just too generic a description and leaves a lot of wiggle room for the Chinese government.

Over the past couple of months I've been writing about a number of scary infections / bacteria / diseases - any of which could cause unbelievable harm if they 'escaped' into the general public.

May 3rd "This is scary..."
May 10th "This is scary... Part 2"
May 12th "Marburg death toll climbing"
May 19th "This is scary... Part 3"
July 18th "Still scary"
July 18th "Awesome site on H5N1"
July 21st "Deaths in Indonesia from H5N1"
July 25th "Mystery Illness"
And now today "Myster Illness part 2"

Given what I consider to be the lack of media attention to any / all of these very real and potentially dangerous, international health issues, I'm wondering what it will take for the public to really take notice and take steps to prepare themselves.

If you've been following H5Nq in particular, you'll know that a lot of health experts are saying we're due for another global pandemic. It's not a matter of 'if', it's a matter of 'when'. May be pessimistic, but I agree... and it sends shudders up and down my spine when I think about it.

Hans Island part 3

2005-07-27T07:22:00.000-05:00

I have to admit... I'm very curious to see how this will end. At the very least to see how it will escalate over time.

**********
Danes call Graham's Hans visit 'occupation'

In Greenland, it's being called an unjustified occupation [my bold], while Canadian diplomats won't even deign to call it an irritant.

But behind the rhetoric, experts say there is a good reason why Defence Minister Bill Graham plopped down on a barren little island in Canada's High North. Arctic sovereignty will become an increasingly important issue as global warming melts the polar ice caps, and even the government of Greenland appears to know it.

Yesterday, a key government official in Greenland chose strong words to describe Mr. Graham's move, while reports in the Danish press said the country expects to send a ship to the area next month.

"When someone unfairly tries to exercise their influence on the island, which is claimed by both Greenland/Denmark and Canada, I can't interpret the action as anything but occupation," Josef Motzfeldt, deputy leader of Greenland's home rule government, was quoted as saying on a Danish Internet site. And while Mr. Motzfeldt was dialing up the outrage, another newspaper, Berlingske Tidende, was reporting that a Danish inspection ship might be heading to Hans Island next month.
...

Hans Island, of course, is so far north and so tiny that most experts don't believe it's worth much right now. But there could be mineral resources under the adjacent sea bed and, should global warming make the area more hospitable, it could prove to be economically important.
**********

Some interesting facts about Hans Island:

- you could fit about three Hans Islands (at 1.3 sq km) into Stanley Park (4 sq km)
- you could nearly fit Hans Island into Lake Louise (1.2 sq km)
- you could fit three and a half Hans Islands into fortified Vieux Quebec (4.6 sq km)

Microsoft sweep

2005-07-26T07:07:00.000-05:00

When I first read this (Bill Gates will be frisking you with a simple point and click), the first thought that went through my mind was about Big Brother... no real surprise there.

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The next time you visit the website of Microsoft Corp. to download some software, be prepared to let the world's biggest software company have a look inside your computer.

In a determined strike to quell the proliferation of counterfeit software, beginning today, Microsoft will require that all customers coming to its website for upgrades and other downloads submit their computers to an electronic frisking.

If you use one of the estimated hundred million PCs running pirated software, don't expect your upgrade. For Microsoft, the new policy is a stepped-up effort to combat the loss of billions of dollars worth of software sales every year to counterfeiters around the world. But in ramping up efforts to fight piracy, the Redmond, Wash.-based behemoth already finds itself fending off critics over privacy.
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But when I think about it a little more, I actually agree with what Microsoft are doing.

Don't get me wrong, I think that Microsoft hasn't always been the most 'open' to competition. But I see nothing wrong with them ensuring that you have a legitimate, licensed copy of their software before providing you with an upgrade.

It's there intellectual property. It's their R&D costs. Why shouldn't they ensure that you've actually paid for the product. Certainly seems fair to me.

I see two potential challenges with this, however - both of which I'm certain Microsoft lawyers have thoroughly researched.

First - Will they ask my permission to conduct the sweep before doing it? If they do, then I have no problem. I can opt in or opt out.

Second - What will they be sweeping? If they're just checking that my Microsoft software is properly licensed, then I have no real problem with this. Where I would have issue is if they are gathering information that isn't directly related to Microsoft products on my system. I'm not sure how they would go about collecting their information without collecting a lot of other information about my system. I do have a challenge with this. However, I have to assume that Microsoft are very aware of this challenge and have a work-around.

So let's read more... First, the point of view from a privacy perspective.

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"It sets an extremely negative precedent," Pam Dixon, executive director of World Privacy Forum, a non-profit public-interest research centre in San Diego, said of the company's initiative. "Microsoft is saying, 'Before I let you do anything at all, you have to open your computer to us.' I really object to this."

The company will scan machines for a variety of information, including product keys or software authorization codes, operating-system version and details on the flow of data between the operating system and other hardware, such as printers.

It is access to this information that particularly upsets the privacy advocates. Ms. Dixon says the only information Microsoft needs to fight piracy is the product key and the operating-system version, and she says that Microsoft will be able to identify users uniquely based on some of the information the company collects.

"They are grabbing more information than they need to deter piracy," she said.
**********

A legitimate concern. As I've already mentioned above, I'm not keen on Microsoft grabbing more data about me than they absolutely need. However, I concede their right to know whether or not I'm using a 'legal' version of their software. So, how has Microsoft dealt with this? Rather well, I think.

**********
If Microsoft deems a PC to be carrying contraband code, it won't allow a user to download Microsoft programs, with the exception of security patches. But the software company — which says that more than one in five U.S. computers runs a counterfeit version of its Windows product — is not just waving a stick. It is also offering a big carrot.

Microsoft said it will give a free copy of its Windows XP to customers who unknowingly bought a counterfeit version of the operating system and who fill out a piracy report, provide proof of purchase and send Microsoft the counterfeit CDs.

Customers who cannot provide proof of purchase but file a piracy report will receive a substantial discount on a legitimate version of the operating system, said Tim Prime, a product manager in the Windows client group at Microsoft Canada Co., a subsidiary of the U.S. company.
Executives at Microsoft reject any suggestions that the move will antagonize customers with privacy concerns.

"Customers want to know whether retailers have sold them genuine software," Mr. Prime said.

More than 40 million users agreed to have their systems scanned in a 10-month trial that began last September in several countries. The participation rate amounted to 58 per cent of all visitors to the pilot website, far exceeding Microsoft's expectations of just 10 per cent, Mr. Prime said.

Microsoft said no personal data will be collected during the validation process, and information will remain completely anonymous. The company said it commissioned TÜV-ITÖ, an independent German security auditor, to test how well its Windows Genuine Advantage program protects customers' data, and the firm concluded that Microsoft does not collect any personal information that would allow it to identify or contact a user.

Seth Schoen, a staff technologist at the Electronic Frontier Foundation, a civil liberties group in San Francisco specializing in technology issues, agreed that Microsoft would not be able to identify customers personally through the program. But the data collected are unique to every customer, just as human fingerprints are unique, and the issue becomes how long the company holds onto the details and whether they could become personally identifying later on, he said.
**********

I think that they've done everything they can to cross all their t's and dot all their i's.

I think a lot of people are going to remain sceptical... but I'm not convinced that their sceptacism is justified.

**********
Clearly, Microsoft believes any risk of public-privacy concerns are worth incurring to fight a problem that has turned into an epidemic in some parts of the world.

Microsoft has been fighting counterfeit efforts for years with limited success. It says that 35 per cent of the world's computers run counterfeit software and that piracy cost the global software industry $41-billion in 2004.

The Canadian Alliance Against Software Theft and the Business Software Alliance reported recently that 36 per cent of all software applications in use in Canada are pirated, costing $1.1-billion in lost retail software sales.
**********

Based on these numbers, I think Microsoft are doing the right thing.

Hans Island part 2

2005-07-25T16:32:00.000-05:00

This is what all the fuss is about...

Looks pretty enough from this angle, but not sure that I'd be counting on too much tourist traffic.

Hans Island

2005-07-25T11:22:00.000-05:00

This is as depressing as it is entertaining...

Canada and Denmark are... exchanging words... over a 1.3 sqare km chunk of rock in the arctic.

**********
Denmark summoned on Monday Canada's envoy to the Nordic country for talks on a territorial dispute over a small, frozen rock in the Arctic circle.

Last week, Canada's Defense Minister Bill Graham visited the 1.3 square km (half a square mile) Hans Island located about 1,000 km (620 miles) from the North Pole between Canada's Ellesmere Island and Greenland, which belongs to Denmark.

"We consider Hans Island to be part of Danish territory and will therefore hand over a complaint about the Canadian minister's unannounced visit," Head of Department of International Public Law at Denmark's Foreign Ministry, Peter Taksoe-Jensen, told Reuters.

Denmark is cautious about signing away sovereignty over any territory after it was forced to look on as neighboring Norway discovered massive oil reserves just within its borders shortly after those were drawn in the North Sea forty years ago.

Denmark's embassy in Canada was informed about Graham's visit two days later, Danish news agency Ritzau said.

Although downplaying the issue, both nations stand firm on their claims to the island, around which they hope one day to find potentially lucrative natural resources.

"The island does not have any economic or strategic significance. Whether it will be important one day, I don't know, but we can't just let go of Danish and Greenlandic territory," said Taksoe-Jensen.

The foundations for the dispute were laid in 1973, when borders drawn between Greenland and Canada ignored Hans Island.

Since then the two sides have expressed their claim by hoisting flags, with Danes leaving bottles of aquavit behind for the next troupe of flag-bearing Canadians, who leave bottles of whiskey in return.
**********

Imagine my surprise when I saw that Kate posted on this more than a year ago...

Obviously, neither side wants to surrender Hans Island just in case there really is oil there. Who knows... Hans Island might turn out to be the next Hibernia :-) On the other hand...

**********
Three years ago, Keith Dewing and Chris Harrison, geologists with the Geological Survey of Canada who were mapping northern Ellesmere Island, flew by helicopter to Hans Island... Hans Island is interesting to geologists because it's part of a mountain chain that starts in the Svalbard Islands off Norway, runs through Greenland, and pokes out again in Ellesmere Island.

...

Dewing says it's unlikely that the island will prove to be a treasure trove of minerals or underwater oil reserves for either nation.

"There's some ancient reefs up there and there's probably one of them associated with Hans Island. It could conceivably contain oil, but that is such a far-fetched, unproveable statement now," Dewing said.

"On the Greenland side there are no indication of any oil in any of those reefs. On the Canadian side there's no indication of any oil in any of those reefs. I guess that's the only potential, that there's a reef there and it's chock full of oil, but it's a remote possibility."

...

To resolve the dispute over who has claim to the island, Dewing suggests Canada and Denmark share Hans Island, which would then be half Nunavut, half Greenland - and a tourist attraction in its own right.

"They should put the border right in the middle. That would be the only place in North America where you could touch Canada and Europe," suggested Dewing.
**********

An interesting suggestion, but I'm not sure that too many tourist dollars will be flocking to Hans Island any time soon.

Mystery Illness

2005-07-25T08:16:00.000-05:00

I saw something about this over the weekend.

17 Chinese farmers dead from a 'mystery illness'. Authorities are quick to say it's not avial flu, it's not SARS, and it's not anthrax (!?!)... but they don't know what it is. Yikes!

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An unidentified disease has killed 17 farmers in China's southwest after they butchered sick pigs or sheep, but health officials say the deaths are unrelated to bird flu or SARS, state media reported Monday.

Another 41 people in the southwestern province of Sichuan were hospitalized with symptoms that include high fever, fatigue, nausea and vomiting, and “became comatose later with bruises under the skin,” the official Xinhua News Agency said.

Twelve were in critical condition, Xinhua said.

The illness likely stems from streptococcus suis, a bacteria that is usually spread among pigs, provincial health official Zeng Huajin was quoted as saying by the China Daily newspaper.
Advertisements
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I tend to take all 'official news' out of China with a grain of salt - particularly if it's news that might make China look 'bad'. My money says that this mystery illness is a lot more wide-spread than official sources are claiming. I'd also be willing to bet that they know exactly what it is, but don't want to say.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Need help

2005-07-22T15:58:00.000-05:00

Not normally into mixing business w/ pleasure, but I need some help and this is another avenue for seeking it.

My team is expanding to include folks in Mexico and Brazil. For obvious reasons, English is their second language. I am looking for a reliable, free on-line translation resource. Any and all suggestions gladly welcome. Thanks.

I've already looked into Google Language Tool and Babelfish. Both are okay, but one of my key contacts in Mexico has put the quality of translation in the 60-70% range. I'd love to hit 80-90%.

And for anyone who's interested... interviewing someone via conference call in their second language... challenging (to say the very least).

Deaths in Indonesia from H5N1

2005-07-21T06:55:00.000-05:00

This morning, officials in Indonesia confirmed three deaths due to H5N1.

Anyone who reads this blog regularly (...all 3 of you...) have probably put together that I consider H5N1 to be one of the larger and more important global threats - one that I do not feel is receiving the attention it deserves.

If this virus ever mutates to allow person to person transmission... we will, undoubtably, be facing the next global pandemic.

Here's a couple of scary para's from today's New York Times (my bold)

**********
Indonesian and W.H.O. epidemiologists are trying to determine the original source of infection with the A(H5N1) strain of avian influenza virus. Though it is possible that one family member gave the virus to the others, the source of the first case is not known, the officials said. No one in the family reported any contact with poultry.

Health officials are monitoring the health of 315 family members, health care workers and other people who had contact with the family during the illnesses of the father and his daughters. The monitoring period is twice the length of the time between the exposure to the virus and the onset of symptoms. That means relatives and other contacts will be closely watched until Aug. 4, health officials said.
**********

Not worried yet? Why not add into the mix this little tidbit... It's from May 28th, but highly relevant.

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Indonesia says a strain of the H5N1 bird flu has been found in pigs on the densely populated island of Java. Scientists worry that, since pigs can carry both human and animal viruses, they could be a "mixing vessel" for the virus to mutate into a strain that could readily infect humans.
**********

I think it's just a matter of time...

Scotty's gone

2005-07-20T12:02:00.000-05:00

Sad news for all the Trekkies out there.

James "Scotty" Doohan passed away today at the age of 85.

Things I didn't know about Scotty:
- He was born in Vancouver
- He was a Lieutenant with the Canadian Artillery during the D-Day invasions on Juno Beach

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At 19, James escaped the turmoil at home by joining the Canadian army, becoming a lieutenant in artillery. He was among the Canadian forces that landed on Juno Beach on D-Day. "The sea was rough," he recalled. "We were more afraid of drowning than the Germans."

The Canadians crossed a minefield laid for tanks; the soldiers weren't heavy enough to detonate the bombs. At 11:30 that night, he was machine-gunned, taking six hits: one that took off his middle right finger (he managed to hide the missing finger on the screen), four in his leg and one in the chest. Fortunately the chest bullet was stopped by his silver cigarette case.
**********

Incredible!!!

Deferred Success ???

2005-07-20T07:16:00.000-05:00

I guess I'm not surprised...

I just wonder how long it will be before such an 'enlightened' concept makes officially into our school systems.

I don't have any kids (yet), but sometimes I just have to shake my head in utter bewilderment about some of the idiocy that makes it into general society and will shape / influence their understanding of the world.

I'm at the tail end of finishing the mid-year performance reviews for my team. I wonder what would happen I started using "deferred success" as a measure of their accomplishments? I can just see the conversation with my VP.

VP - "So, how did your team perform in Q2? Give me the highlights of the major accomplishments and their impact on our business results."
Me - "We didn't manage to hit any of our goals or targets for the quarter. We've deffered our success to the back half of the year."

My arse would be out on the street so fast...

Why is this a surprise?

2005-07-20T07:00:00.000-05:00

This story is all over the news today.

**********
Members of a joint U.S. Senate-House committee voted yesterday to extend daylight time and are racing to finish the energy bill by the beginning of August.
**********

Okay, maybe it isn't a 'sexy', headline-grabbing piece of legislation (before today, that is).

What I want to know is this. Why does this appear to be a surprise to us? Don't we (and by this I'm clearly implying our government and the media) keep close enough tabs on proposed legislation in the US, that something as seemingly innocuous, yet 'far-reaching' as this, shouldn't catch us off guard? Surely this issue didn't just pop out of thin air yesterday...

Here's what I think we should do... I say we should start a Canadian version of The Minute Men. But instead of the US version (giving them guns to defend the country and repel invaders), our Minute Men would work all border crossings, setting and re-setting the time on everyone's watch as they cross the border. For frequent travellers, the Minute Men could offer the equivalent of a 'valet service' for watches. Leave your Canadian watch in Canada and have your US watch for the US.

Tip of the hat to Mike's reply to Alan's post, creating the post of 'Time Lord' seems appropriate. In fact, let's take it one step further and make Time Lord a member of cabinet.

Take that tobacco... ha ha

2005-07-20T06:51:00.000-05:00

I haven't exactly been a 'fan' of the Liberal government. But any day of the week that they do stuff like this, I will happily stand and give them kudos.

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Ottawa and the provinces are demanding about $10-billion in compensation from one of Canada's largest tobacco companies for tax revenues lost when cigarettes were being smuggled into Canada in the early 1990s.

The $9.6-billion, plus interest and assorted penalties, being sought from JTI-Macdonald Corp. is part of landmark legal action, and was spelled out in a report of the Ontario Superior Court.
**********

JTI is the third largest tobacco firm in Canada with approximately 12% of the market.

**********
The suit, which was originally launched by the federal government, claims taxes owed on both the smuggled cigarettes and additional money lost because governments had to lower taxes to compete with the smuggled smokes.

Quebec had filed its own suit for $1.36-billion, making a similar argument.

JTI... received bankruptcy protection last August. It obtained a court order insisting that all other governments that believed they had similar claims had to make them known by the end of June. In the end, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario and Prince Edward Island signed on...

One surprise in the filing was that, on the last day allowable, the federal government increased its claim to $4.3-billion from $1.5-billion...

According to the report, which was compiled by an accounting firm appointed by court, the claims are as follows: Ontario $1.5-billion; New Brunswick $1.5-billion; British Columbia $450-million; Nova Scotia $326-million; PEI $75-million; and Manitoba $23-million. In addition, each province has included unspecified costs such as punitive damages, penalties and interest.
**********

Imperial Tobacco Canada Ltd... Rothmans Benson and Hedges Inc... you're next, I hope!

Awesome site on H5N1

2005-07-18T07:46:00.000-05:00

This is so good that it's worth the cut and paste. It's the WHO's avian flu fact sheet. I've bolded a few sections, but would strongly encourage you to read all of it.

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Avian influenza

Avian influenza ("bird flu") and the significance of its transmission to humans

The disease in birds: impact and control measures

Avian influenza is an infectious disease of birds caused by type A strains of the influenza virus. The disease, which was first identified in Italy more than 100 years ago, occurs worldwide.
All birds are thought to be susceptible to infection with avian influenza, though some species are more resistant to infection than others. Infection causes a wide spectrum of symptoms in birds, ranging from mild illness to a highly contagious and rapidly fatal disease resulting in severe epidemics. The latter is known as “highly pathogenic avian influenza”. This form is characterized by sudden onset, severe illness, and rapid death, with a mortality that can approach 100%.

Fifteen subtypes of influenza virus are known to infect birds, thus providing an extensive reservoir of influenza viruses potentially circulating in bird populations. To date, all outbreaks of the highly pathogenic form have been caused by influenza A viruses of subtypes H5 and H7.
Migratory waterfowl – most notably wild ducks – are the natural reservoir of avian influenza viruses, and these birds are also the most resistant to infection. Domestic poultry, including chickens and turkeys, are particularly susceptible to epidemics of rapidly fatal influenza.
Direct or indirect contact of domestic flocks with wild migratory waterfowl has been implicated as a frequent cause of epidemics. Live bird markets have also played an important role in the spread of epidemics.

Recent research has shown that viruses of low pathogenicity can, after circulation for sometimes short periods in a poultry population, mutate into highly pathogenic viruses. During a 1983–1984 epidemic in the United States of America, the H5N2 virus initially caused low mortality, but within six months became highly pathogenic, with a mortality approaching 90%. Control of the outbreak required destruction of more than 17 million birds at a cost of nearly US$ 65 million. During a 1999–2001 epidemic in Italy, the H7N1 virus, initially of low pathogenicity, mutated within 9 months to a highly pathogenic form. More than 13 million birds died or were destroyed.

The quarantining of infected farms and destruction of infected or potentially exposed flocks are standard control measures aimed at preventing spread to other farms and eventual establishment of the virus in a country’s poultry population. Apart from being highly contagious, avian influenza viruses are readily transmitted from farm to farm by mechanical means, such as by contaminated equipment, vehicles, feed, cages, or clothing. Highly pathogenic viruses can survive for long periods in the environment, especially when temperatures are low. Stringent sanitary measures on farms can, however, confer some degree of protection.

In the absence of prompt control measures backed by good surveillance, epidemics can last for years. For example, an epidemic of H5N2 avian influenza, which began in Mexico in 1992, started with low pathogenicity, evolved to the highly fatal form, and was not controlled until 1995.

A constantly mutating virus: two consequences

All type A influenza viruses, including those that regularly cause seasonal epidemics of influenza in humans, are genetically labile and well adapted to elude host defenses. Influenza viruses lack mechanisms for the “proofreading” and repair of errors that occur during replication. As a result of these uncorrected errors, the genetic composition of the viruses changes as they replicate in humans and animals, and the existing strain is replaced with a new antigenic variant. These constant, permanent and usually small changes in the antigenic composition of influenza A viruses are known as antigenic “drift”.

The tendency of influenza viruses to undergo frequent and permanent antigenic changes necessitates constant monitoring of the global influenza situation and annual adjustments in the composition of influenza vaccines. Both activities have been a cornerstone of the WHO Global Influenza Programme since its inception in 1947.

Influenza viruses have a second characteristic of great public health concern: influenza A viruses, including subtypes from different species, can swap or “reassort” genetic materials and merge. This reassortment process, known as antigenic “shift”, results in a novel subtype different from both parent viruses. As populations will have no immunity to the new subtype, and as no existing vaccines can confer protection, antigenic shift has historically resulted in highly lethal pandemics. For this to happen, the novel subtype needs to have genes from human influenza viruses that make it readily transmissible from person to person for a sustainable period.

Conditions favourable for the emergence of antigenic shift have long been thought to involve humans living in close proximity to domestic poultry and pigs. Because pigs are susceptible to infection with both avian and mammalian viruses, including human strains, they can serve as a “mixing vessel” for the scrambling of genetic material from human and avian viruses, resulting in the emergence of a novel subtype. Recent events, however, have identified a second possible mechanism. Evidence is mounting that, for at least some of the 15 avian influenza virus subtypes circulating in bird populations, humans themselves can serve as the “mixing vessel”.

Human infection with avian influenza viruses: a timeline

Avian influenza viruses do not normally infect species other than birds and pigs. The first documented infection of humans with an avian influenza virus occurred in Hong Kong in 1997, when the H5N1 strain caused severe respiratory disease in 18 humans, of whom 6 died. The infection of humans coincided with an epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza, caused by the same strain, in Hong Kong’s poultry population.

Extensive investigation of that outbreak determined that close contact with live infected poultry was the source of human infection. Studies at the genetic level further determined that the virus had jumped directly from birds to humans. Limited transmission to health care workers occurred, but did not cause severe disease.

Rapid destruction – within three days – of Hong Kong’s entire poultry population, estimated at around 1.5 million birds, reduced opportunities for further direct transmission to humans, and may have averted a pandemic.

That event alarmed public health authorities, as it marked the first time that an avian influenza virus was transmitted directly to humans and caused severe illness with high mortality. Alarm mounted again in February 2003, when an outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza in Hong Kong caused 2 cases and 1 death in members of a family who had recently travelled to southern China. Another child in the family died during that visit, but the cause of death is not known.

Two other avian influenza viruses have recently caused illness in humans. An outbreak of highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza, which began in the Netherlands in February 2003, caused the death of one veterinarian two months later, and mild illness in 83 other humans. Mild cases of avian influenza H9N2 in children occurred in Hong Kong in 1999 (two cases) and in mid-December 2003 (one case). H9N2 is not highly pathogenic in birds.

The most recent cause for alarm occurred in January 2004, when laboratory tests confirmed the presence of H5N1 avian influenza virus in human cases of severe respiratory disease in the northern part of Viet Nam.

Why H5N1 is of particular concern

Of the 15 avian influenza virus subtypes, H5N1 is of particular concern for several reasons. H5N1 mutates rapidly and has a documented propensity to acquire genes from viruses infecting other animal species. Its ability to cause severe disease in humans has now been documented on two occasions. In addition, laboratory studies have demonstrated that isolates from this virus have a high pathogenicity and can cause severe disease in humans. Birds that survive infection excrete virus for at least 10 days, orally and in faeces, thus facilitating further spread at live poultry markets and by migratory birds.

The epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza caused by H5N1, which began in mid-December 2003 in the Republic of Korea and is now being seen in other Asian countries, is therefore of particular public health concern. H5N1 variants demonstrated a capacity to directly infect humans in 1997, and have done so again in Viet Nam in January 2004. The spread of infection in birds increases the opportunities for direct infection of humans. If more humans become infected over time, the likelihood also increases that humans, if concurrently infected with human and avian influenza strains, could serve as the “mixing vessel” for the emergence of a novel subtype with sufficient human genes to be easily transmitted from person to person. Such an event would mark the start of an influenza pandemic.

Influenza pandemics: can they be averted?

Based on historical patterns, influenza pandemics can be expected to occur, on average, three to four times each century when new virus subtypes emerge and are readily transmitted from person to person. However, the occurrence of influenza pandemics is unpredictable. In the 20th century, the great influenza pandemic of 1918–1919, which caused an estimated 40 to 50 million deaths worldwide, was followed by pandemics in 1957–1958 and 1968–1969.

Experts agree that another influenza pandemic is inevitable and possibly imminent.

Most influenza experts also agree that the prompt culling of Hong Kong’s entire poultry population in 1997 probably averted a pandemic.

Several measures can help minimize the global public health risks that could arise from large outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in birds. An immediate priority is to halt further spread of epidemics in poultry populations. This strategy works to reduce opportunities for human exposure to the virus. Vaccination of persons at high risk of exposure to infected poultry, using existing vaccines effective against currently circulating human influenza strains, can reduce the likelihood of co-infection of humans with avian and influenza strains, and thus reduce the risk that genes will be exchanged. Workers involved in the culling of poultry flocks must be protected, by proper clothing and equipment, against infection. These workers should also receive antiviral drugs as a prophylactic measure.

When cases of avian influenza in humans occur, information on the extent of influenza infection in animals as well as humans and on circulating influenza viruses is urgently needed to aid the assessment of risks to public health and to guide the best protective measures. Thorough investigation of each case is also essential. While WHO and the members of its global influenza network, together with other international agencies, can assist with many of these activities, the successful containment of public health risks also depends on the epidemiological and laboratory capacity of affected countries and the adequacy of surveillance systems already in place.
While all these activities can reduce the likelihood that a pandemic strain will emerge, the question of whether another influenza pandemic can be averted cannot be answered with certainty.

Clinical course and treatment of human cases of H5N1 avian influenza

Published information about the clinical course of human infection with H5N1 avian influenza is limited to studies of cases in the 1997 Hong Kong outbreak. In that outbreak, patients developed symptoms of fever, sore throat, cough and, in several of the fatal cases, severe respiratory distress secondary to viral pneumonia. Previously healthy adults and children, and some with chronic medical conditions, were affected.

Tests for diagnosing all influenza strains of animals and humans are rapid and reliable. Many laboratories in the WHO global influenza network have the necessary high-security facilities and reagents for performing these tests as well as considerable experience. Rapid bedside tests for the diagnosis of human influenza are also available, but do not have the precision of the more extensive laboratory testing that is currently needed to fully understand the most recent cases and determine whether human infection is spreading, either directly from birds or from person to person.

Antiviral drugs, some of which can be used for both treatment and prevention, are clinically effective against influenza A virus strains in otherwise healthy adults and children, but have some limitations. Some of these drugs are also expensive and supplies are limited.
Experience in the production of influenza vaccines is also considerable, particularly as vaccine composition changes each year to match changes in circulating virus due to antigenic drift. However, at least four months would be needed to produce a new vaccine, in significant quantities, capable of conferring protection against a new virus subtype.
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Something to mull over during your morning coffee.

Still Scary

2005-07-18T07:33:00.000-05:00

I've been trying to keep somewhat abrest of the H5N1 virus - the strain of bird flu that has the WHO concerned about a global pandemic.

What frustrates me about keeping up with this story is this... no one really seems to be covering it. I'm convinced that I half heard something on CBC driving in this morning, that indicated H5N1 has spread to the Phillipines. If this is true, then I'm concerned and want to know more.

I couldn't find anything from today on the CBC or Globe and Mail websites about this. The most recent article from the CBC is this one, dated July 6th, which talks about H5N1 speading via migratory birds.

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For the first time, the virus has spread between wild birds, researchers reported in the journals Science and Nature on Wednesday.

At least 1,000 dead birds were found at a wildlife refuge at Lake Qinghaihu in western China, the reports said. The avian death toll has now topped 5,000, an official from the World Health Organization said last week.

Since the reserve is a breeding ground for bar-headed geese (Anser indicus) that migrate over the Himalayas, scientists warn the birds could carry the virus to India, Australia, New Zealand and eventually Europe.

"The occurrence of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus infection in migrant waterfowl indicates that this virus has the potential to be a global threat," Jinhua Liu of China Agricultural University and colleagues wrote in Science.
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This was always a threat and it should send shivers up and down your spine because there is no way to contain this sort of spread. It's just a matter of time.

Interested in learning what the WHO has to say about strengthening pandemic influenze preparedendess and response? A ton of information available.

The Slurpee is 40 !

2005-07-12T11:40:00.000-05:00

I was reading an article in The Globe about how 7-Eleven is 'rebranding' itself for downtown locations (... interesting strategy, hope it works for them).

In the artictle, they mentioned that the Slurpee is 40.

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The company began implementing the plan in earnest yesterday with a move back into Manhattan, opening its first location in the New York borough since closing shop there in 1982.

The Manhattan opening coincided with the 40th anniversary of its Slurpee beverage, a slushy mix of ice and syrupy flavours, that was first served on July 11, 1966.
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Looking for some 7-Eleven trivia? Of course you are! We both know that your day won't be complete without it. Check this out.

Here are some highlights...

- With approximately 5,800 stores in the United States and Canada and more than 27,900 worldwide, 7-Eleven is the largest convenience retailer in the world.

- Who? What? Where? Who’s buying the most 7-Eleven stuff? The answer is – the most Slurpee® beverages in the world are purchased in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada; and for the United States, it’s Detroit; hot dogs in Washington, D.C., coffee on Long Island, nachos in Colorado, Big Gulp® drinks in Las Vegas and Utah.

- Of all its proprietary products, 7-Eleven sells more fresh-brewed coffee than anything else – more than 1 million cups each day. That’s more than 10,000 pots of coffee an hour every hour of every day of the year.

- 7-Eleven customers sip and slurp 11.6 million Slurpee® beverages each month. Favorite flavors are Coca-Cola and Minute Maid Cherry. Since its introduction in 1966, close to 6 billion Slurpee drinks have been sold, just about enough for every person on the planet to have slurped.

- 7-Eleven registered the term “brainfreeze” in 1994 to communicate the painful joy of drinking a frozen Slurpee beverage.

Like we didn't know this...

2005-07-12T11:33:00.000-05:00

Not sure whether to blame The Globe or Environment Canada for stating the blindingly obvious... I'll let you decide for yourself.

Weird, wild weather a new norm

The business of space flight

2005-07-11T06:53:00.000-05:00

I like this quote from Chris Hadfield [the first Canadian to walk in space and now the director of NASA's robotics program]

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"The purpose of a spaceship is to fly in space," he [Chris Hadfield] said. "We're not in the business of just dreaming about space flight, we're in the business of space flight."
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Discovery is scheduled to launch on Wednesday... weather permitting... after a 2.5 year hiatus following the Columbia explosion on Feb 1st, 2003. I'm glad the shuttles are back in flight status.

I remember when the shuttle program was just starting out. I remember cutting out articles from The Calgary Herald about the shuttle, particularly if the article had pictures... more so if the pictures were in colour (a rare event at the time). I still have some of those picture / articles in a file folder in my home office. As a young boy, part of my fascination with the shuttles was that they appeared to be opening up the possibility for 'normal' people to go to space :-) Part of me still hopes they might...

Leon Mugesera

2005-07-08T14:49:00.000-05:00

If you don't know who Leon Mugesera is...

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The Canadian Supreme Court last month found Mr. Mugesera helped incite the 1994 genocide of 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus in his central African homeland and said he should be sent back to face trial...

Last month the Supreme Court ruled unanimously there were reasonable grounds to believe Mr. Mugesera promoted hatred, murder and genocide and committed a crime against humanity with a fiery 1992 speech in which he called on ethnic Hutus to "exterminate" their traditional Tutsi rivals.
**********

Turns out, Canada won't extradite Mr. Mugesera to Rwanda because there is a chance that he will be executed for his crimes. !?!?!?!?!

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He [Mugesera] said at a news conference last month he feels he has been "crucified" by his accusers in Canada and is "living a passion that is longer than the Christ's."

Mr. Mugesera, who moved to Spain and then Canada before the outbreak of genocide, had appealed deportation orders by Canada's Immigration and Refugee Board. He became a permanent resident of Canada in 1993, and lives with his family in Quebec.
**********

So... The Canadian Supreme unanimouslymously agrees that there are reasonable grounds that Mr. Mugesera committed a crime against humanity, but we extraditeridite him because there's a chance he might be executed? At what point do we draw the line?

I'm not going to try and put a value on a single human life - in terms of $$, time, or other lives. I would not condone sending this man to a certain death without the benefit of a trial in which his accusers must prove his guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. But I have to believe that if our Supreme Court has found reasonable grounds to support a case involving crimes against humanity, then this man should be sent back to Rwanda to face criminal proceedings.

It's interesting to note that Rwanda has yet to execute anyone based on any of the events surrounding the genocide.

By harbouring this man, and therefore protecting him from facing the justice he (most likely) deserves, Canada is implicitly condoning the hatred and violence that he helped incite.

By claiming that he has been living a passion longer than the Christ's is an outrage and a blatant attempt to manipulate public sentiment in his favour.

In my opinion, this man should be shipped on the next available plane to Kiimmediatelydately handed over to the local authorities, and then tried for his participation in one of modern humanities greatest genocides!

If, for some baffling reason, the Canadian government can't get it's act together to send this man back to Rwanda, at a minimum, the least they could do would be sending this man tHague Hauge to stand trial with others, from other conflicts, who have been similarly charged.

Bottom line... get this man out of Canada - NOW!!!!!

BMI and Obesity

2005-07-06T11:06:00.000-05:00

I'll point out my bias right away - I've never been a big fan of the BMI scale.

I spent a number of years in the army and saw a lot of VERY fit guys get fairly high BMI scores just because they had a lot of muscle - it's a known limitation of the BMI scale.

This article from the Globe and Mail today (Obesity rates soar) got me wondering about my own BMI. I'm certainly not in the same shape I was while I was serving... and it probably wouldn't hurt if I lost 7-10 pounds... but I'm by no means significantly or seriously over-weight.

However... that's not what the BMI scale thinks. This is one of the nicer layouts for a BMI calcualtor that I've come across. According to this, my BMI is 30.7. Imagine my surprise when I learned that I'm obese. I disagree with this assessment, but who am I to argue with science. So I started playing around with the calculator to find out what I would have to do to enter the 'normal weight' category.

I have two choices... I can either lose 34 pounds (!?!?!) or I need a mid-life growth spurt of 7 inches. I'm not holding my breath for the growth spurt. But losing 34 pounds would make me lighter than I was in high school... I don't think I'm going too far out on a limb here by saying "Not gonna happen!"

Knowing that the BMI scale is looking for something impossible (unless I lose a leg), it makes me wonder about the statistics being reported in the Globe's article.

Stone Trek

2005-07-06T09:01:00.000-05:00

Thanks RJ for pointing the way to this priceless gem.

If you haven't checked this out, you have to. It's VERY well done. It's Star Trek meets the Flintstones... and it's hilarious!

Another look at "Canada Day"

2005-07-04T09:17:00.000-05:00

These posts are worth reading.

Thanks John.

Rick's pov on July 1st is interesting too.

Deep Impact

2005-07-04T07:42:00.000-05:00

This is simply amazing!

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After 172 days and 431 million kilometers (268 million miles) of deep space stalking, Deep Impact successfully reached out and touched comet Tempel 1. The collision between the coffee table-sized impactor and city-sized comet occurred at 1:52 a.m. EDT.
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The best analogy that I've heard to describe this accomplishment is this:

Imagine firing bullet A so that it collides with bullet B... Now fire bullet C to take pictures of the collission.

An impressive accomplishment. I just hope that it was worth the price tag... approx $333 million US.

Happy Canada Day!

2005-07-01T10:41:00.000-05:00

HAPPY CANADA DAY!

To help celebrate the day, I've decided to include some history about the Maple Leaf.

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Although the idea of a new design for the national flag had been discussed for decades in the 20th century, it was in the 1960s that the debate intensified and became a subject of considerable controversy culminating in the Great Flag Debate of 1964.

The principal political proponent of the change was Prime Minister Lester B. Pearson, while the main opponent was the leader of the opposition and former prime minister, John Diefenbaker, who made it his personal crusade not only for sentimental reasons but also for political advantage. Eventually, a multi-party parliamentary committee was established to select a new design. Through a period of study with some political manoeuvring the committee came up with the current design, which was created by George Stanley, inspired by the flag of The Royal Military College of Canada, in Kingston, Ontario. The design was adopted unanimously by the Committee on October 29, 1964. The new flag was adopted by the House of Commons on December 15, 1964 (the Senate added its approval two days later).

On January 24, 1965, former British prime minister Sir Winston Churchill passed away. As soon as he learned his passing, Pearson announced that he would attend the state funeral in London and would meet with Queen Elizabeth II to have her proclaim the new flag, which she did on January 28, 1965.

It was inaugurated on February 15, 1965 at an official ceremony held on Parliament Hill in Ottawa in the presence of the Governor General, His Excellency General the Right Honourable Georges P. Vanier, the prime minister, the members of the Cabinet, and Canadian parliamentarians. Since 1996, February 15 has been commemorated as National Flag of Canada Day.

Despite the preceding acrimony, the new flag was quickly embraced by the Canadian public, and internationally the flag quickly became a welcome and easily recognizable marker of Canada worldwide.
**********

Of course, no discourse on our flag would be complete without a nod to the Red Ensign.

and perhaps is lesser known cousin, the Blue Ensign (used as a jack by the Royal Canadian Navy until 1965).

HAPPY CANADA DAY!

One of my quirks

2005-06-30T20:10:00.000-05:00

Call it an odd personality quirk, but I love taking survey's. It drives my wife crazy. Ha ha :-) In fact, for quite a while now, I've been a regular participant in the Ipsos-Reid Ipsos I-Say Panel. Every so often they send me an e-mail with a link to a survey. Average survey length is in the 10-15 minute range. The longest I ever participated in was (obvious by the questions being asked) for Wal-Mart. It probably took me 45-60 minutes to complete - but they paid me $20 for my time. Given my 'quirk', I would have done it for free, but I'm more than willing to let them pay me for my opinion.

You have to see this!

2005-06-30T12:49:00.000-05:00

BANGKOK, Thailand (AP) - Thai fishermen caught a catfish weighing 293 kilograms - 646 pounds - which is believed to be the world's largest freshwater fish ever recorded, a researcher said Thursday.

The 2.7-metre (8.9-foot) Mekong giant catfish was netted May 1 by villagers in Chiang Khong, a remote district in northern Thailand, and weighed by Thai fisheries department officials, said Zeb Hogan, who leads an international project to locate and study the world's largest freshwater fish species.

The giant grows

2005-06-30T11:26:00.000-05:00

One of the giant's in the financial services space, Bank of America, is getting even bigger by gobbling up MBNA.

Read here (or here or here) for more.

Slacker's Bible

2005-06-30T07:20:00.000-05:00

Came across this gem in the Fast Company blog.

Corinne Maier has authored Bonjour paresse (Hello Laziness). This essay / pamphlet is apparently quite a hit in France (where Maier 'works' and where it was published).

Some gems from Maier? How about 10 commandements for the idle?

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No. 1 You are a modern day slave. There is no scope for personal fulfilment. You work for your pay-check at the end of the month, full stop.

No. 2 It's pointless to try to change the system. Opposing it simply makes it stronger.

No. 3 What you do is pointless. You can be replaced from one day to the next by any cretin sitting next to you. So work as little as possible and spend time (not too much, if you can help it) cultivating your personal network so that you're untouchable when the next restructuring comes around.

No. 4 You're not judged on merit, but on whether you look and sound the part. Speak lots of leaden jargon: people will suspect you have an inside track

No. 5 Never accept a position of responsibility for any reason. You'll only have to work harder for what amounts to peanuts.

No. 6 Make a beeline for the most useless positions, (research, strategy and business development), where it is impossible to assess your 'contribution to the wealth of the firm'. Avoid 'on the ground' operational roles like the plague.

No. 7 Once you've found one of these plum jobs, never move. It is only the most exposed who get fired.

No. 8 Learn to identify kindred spirits who, like you, believe the system is absurd through discreet signs (quirks in clothing, peculiar jokes, warm smiles).

No. 9 Be nice to people on short-term contracts. They are the only people who do any real work.

No. 10 Tell yourself that the absurd ideology underpinning this corporate b***s*** cannot last for ever. It will go the same way as the dialectical materialism of the communist system. The problem is knowning when...
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Probably more appropriate reading for the Labour Day long-weekend than the Canada Day long-weekend...

Too many big news stories

2005-06-29T06:56:00.000-05:00

I'm insanely busy at work right now. Believe me, I'd love to be posting a lot more, particularly given all the major stories from the past 24 hrs. So here's how I'm going to handle it.

Story -- one word opinion -- link to someone else.

Passage of Bill C38 -- disappointed -- link

President Bush's address last night -- unenlightened -- link

Homolka's request for media injunction -- unprecidented -- link

Ontario's record breaking engery consumption -- over-heated -- link

and on a 'lighter' note... Michelin's apology for the US Grand Prix -- appropriate -- link

Surfin' suggestions

2005-06-24T17:18:00.000-05:00

Looking for something else to read? Okay...

Technically, you can't actually 'read' this, but I like it.

For something with a little more bite...

I didn't know this... thanks Sue! I'm calling on Monday.

I went here and found this and this - which I think are cool.

I don't actually agree with this about this... but last time I checked, not everyone has to agree with me.

This is actually taken from here (which is a an extremely interesting book that I read while on vacation)... but it hasn't been directly credited as such. But there's a link to an article by the author, so I guess that's okay.

Let's see... what else... Or are you bored of rolling over the word 'this' to see where the links go? Not yet? Okay, but just to spice it up a bit.

Go here and quickly follow it up by going here. Now go back here and leave a comment.

And this is the last one (mainly because I'm hungry and it's time to go fire up the BBQ)... go here... odds are, you're going to have a fairly strong opinion one way or the other.

Cheers!

Rick Mercer

2005-06-24T11:19:00.000-05:00

Rick Mercer has a blog and it's a hoot!

It's just like watching his rants on Monday Report... which is moving to Tuesdays this fall - go figure. Only the CBC could move 'Monday' Report to Tuesday... all I can do is shake my head - you can't see me right now (as far as I know), but I really am shaking my head... really! Honestly... I am. It's shaking right now.

But back to Rick's blog. As I was saying, it's just like watching his rants on Monday Report... only without his huge head... If you've ever seen him live, you know that his head is frighteningly large compared to the rest of him - it's actually a litte unnerving. We went to see a taping of Monday Report earlier this year. His head is sooo big compared to the rest of his teeny, tiny body that you constantly think he's going to tip over... but he doesn't! Maybe he's a actually a Weeble!?!? Remember Weebles? "Weebles wobble, but they don't fall down!" That was a great jingle...

But enough about Rick's big head and Weebles... back to his blog, which is just like watching his rants on Monday Report... excpet you don't get to hear his quaint maritime accent... and it's on your computer monitor instead of your tv... and you have to read it instead of listening to it... and you can't laugh so hard that beer shoots out your nose because they don't let me, I mean you, keep the mini-fridge stocked in the office... and... and...

Okay... maybe it's nothing like watching his rants on Monday Report.

But it's funny and it's worth reading!

Funny cartoon

2005-06-24T07:40:00.000-05:00

F1 fans... check this out :-)

Laugh or Cry?

2005-06-24T06:48:00.000-05:00

Not sure whether to laugh or cry over this.

The surprise manouver by the Liberals to limit debate on C-48 last night was... actaully a brilliant bit of politicing. Of course to do it, Martin had to further sell his soul to the devil - getting deeper in debt to the NDP and adding the Bloc to the list. Consistent behaviour for Martin, but unfortunate for the implications that it has for effective governance in our country.

All in all, I'm honestly not surprised that this budget amendment passed. I'm disappointed, but not surprised. But what disappoints me most is that passage of C-48 opens the door for the Liberals to manouver in passage of C-38.

I know that C-38 is causing a lot of 'moral' debate - facing 'the religious right' off against some very loud and influential 'special interest groups' (if I can dare use that term).

Personally, I'm against C-38 and I would be much happier if C-38 were, in order:
- scrapped all together
- defeated in the house once and for all
- decided via national referendum
- decided via a general election

But that's just me. For now, all I can do is make my family and friends aware of what I think and why I think it; let my MP know the same (even though it's like banging my head against a brick wall); and encourage my family and friends to let their MPs know how they feel - even if they don't agree w/ me - they're as entitled to their opinion as I am to mine.

Do NOT mess with this man!

2005-06-23T12:18:00.000-05:00

This is too cool not to post...

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Grandfather kills leopard with his hands

NAIROBI (Reuters) - A 73-year-old Kenyan grandfather reached into the mouth of an attacking leopard and tore out its tongue to kill it, authorities said Wednesday.

Peasant farmer Daniel M'Mburugu was tending to his potato and bean crops in a rural area near Mount Kenya when the leopard charged out of the long grass and leapt on him.

M'Mburugu had a machete in one hand but dropped that to thrust his fist down the leopard's mouth. He gradually managed to pull out the animal's tongue, leaving it in its death-throes.

"It let out a blood-curdling snarl that made the birds stop chirping," he told the daily Standard newspaper of how the leopard came at him and knocked him over.

The leopard sank its teeth into the farmer's wrist and mauled him with its claws. "A voice, which must have come from God, whispered to me to drop the panga (machete) and thrust my hand in its wide open mouth. I obeyed," M'Mburugu said.

As the leopard was dying, a neighbor heard the screams and arrived to finish it off with a machete.

M'Mburugu was toasted as a hero in his village Kihato after the incident earlier this month. He was also given free hospital treatment by astonished local authorities.

"This guy is very lucky to be alive," Kenya Wildlife Service official Connie Maina told Reuters, confirming details of the incident.
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The understatement of all understatements... "This guy is very lucky to be alive." No kidding!

Interview with Max Mosley

2005-06-23T09:18:00.000-05:00

If you are at all interested in F1, then you have to read this interview with Max.

Personally, I don't think the FIA or Indianapolis Motor Speedway are at fault in any way for what happened last Sunday. In my opinion, this entire debacle rests squarely on the shoulders of Michelin... and the seven teams that refused to race.

It's highly unfortunate for the fans - disgraceful even!

I think Max is taking a strong, but appropriate stance. I'm looking forward to what the teams have to say on the 29th.

'Major political issue' looms

2005-06-23T07:19:00.000-05:00

Believe it or not, that's how the headline starts...

So I started thinking... what could it be?
- Extending the current session of parliament?
- Africa's crippling debt load (as highlighted by Live 8)?
- Same sex marriage legislation and the pending Liberal-Conservative show down?
- Record level deficit spending by the US government?
- ...

Boy, was I ever off!

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'Major political issue' looms as infertility doubles, conference told

As many as one in three Western couples could have fertility problems within 10 years because of obesity, sexually transmitted infections and lifestyle decisions, a British doctor warns...

"It looks as if the amount of infertility in the Western world could double in the next decade," Ledger said as the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology met in Copenhagen Monday...

About one in seven couples in the Western world now has difficulty conceiving, said Ledger.

The three major factors he considered in making his prediction were:

Rising obesity rates among young girls and women in many western countries, which can interfere with efficient ovulation and cause problems during pregnancy.
A much larger incidence of chlamydia and other sexually transmitted infections that can leave women infertile by blocking their Fallopian tubes.
The decision of many couples to delay having children until the mid- or late-30s, when fertility declines, for career or lifestyle reasons.

Ledger also said male infertility problems are on the rise, with many studies suggesting that the quality and quantity of sperm is on the decline.

In his speech, Ledger recommended governments consider tax relief measures to encourage career breaks when women are younger, so that they are better placed financially to have children when fertility is at its peak.
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All I can say is that I am more than willing to do my part to avert this looming political crisis!

In fact, I think that rather than debating an extension of the current session of parliament, or the spending spree bill that the Liberals & NDP concocted, or same-sex marriage... I think we should contact our MPs and have them legislate a series of new statutory holidays.

As a starting point, I propose that every second Monday in every second month, hereby be designated an official "Baby Making Day" - with additional incentives available to those of us willing to make 'sacrificial efforts' to avoid this crisis beyond these designated days.

All those in favour... please rush home :-)

Back

2005-06-22T11:29:00.000-05:00

Vacation was GREAT!

All I can say, is thank goodness we were in Montreal and not Indianopolis. Given what we paid for our tickets (thank you H-B for working the O/T last fall to surprise me with the tickets), if 14 of 20 cars had pulled off the grid in Montreal, I would have gone nuts!

Being at the race in Montreal was a fantastic experience! There really is nothing like F1 when it's live :-) But I do have one complaint... I'm not a fan of paying $3.75 for a 500 ml bottle of water. I went in with my eyes open about what prices would be inside the gate... but come on! Thank goodness we were allowed to bring our own water in.

Actually, that raises another interesting phenomonon. People were actaully bringing in coolers full of food, beer, wine, etc... There were some folks behind us who had a full-fledged wine and cheese party just before the qualifying on Saturday. I was amazed that folks were allowed to bring so much in with them - particularly all the alcohol. Don't get me wrong, I'm not complaining. Except for a family of Americans further down our row (who seemed far more interested in seeing who could drink the most beer, rather than watching the race), I didn't really see a lot of 'abuse' going on. But when I compare it to some of the other events that I've been to (where it felt like a body cavity search going in...), this was... enlightened? liberating? impressive?

We were sitting at the hairpin, so we had a great view for some exciting racing. There's a speed-trap just before the hairpin. The cars were averaging in the 290-295 kph range when they came through the speed trap. Then it was hard on the breaks to bleed 230-240 kph so they could make the turn. Impressive! And it's unbeleivable how fast the cars accelerated down the straight away and out of site.

What a way to start a vacation!

Vacation ! ! !

2005-06-08T21:53:00.000-05:00

Haven't been posting too regularly lately. Good reason why. I was away in NY on business for a couple of days, now it's off on vacation.

We're starting here (not a great web-site... in fact, quite disappointing; but it is the 'official' site). This one's better!

Then we're going here for a couple of days.

Then it's back here for a few more days - doing the in-law thing :-)

Then home on the 18th.

There won't be much (or any) posting while we're away... a MUCH needed break from EVERYTHING!

Cheers!